The new commander of US forces in Asia and the Pacific, Admiral William Fallon, has begun making subtle but distinctive changes in his command's endeavor to keep the peace between Taiwan and China, widely considered to be potentially the most explosive conflict in Asia.
Military officers who asked not to be named because of the sensitivities in Taipei, Beijing, and Washington said the admiral has quietly encouraged Taiwan to strengthen its defenses with increased spending, a better command structure, and defensive missiles, mines, and helicopters. He has urged Taipei to forego high-tech weapons that could be employed in offensive operations.
The officers, noting that Fallon had recently made his first trip to China, said he sought to deter Beijing by reminding Chinese leaders that the US had the capability and resolve to help defend Taiwan. He tried to balance that by proposing new exchanges, inviting Chinese officers to observe US military exercises and having American officers make reciprocal visits to China.
At issue is the fate of the island off the southeastern coast of China that is home for 23 million people. Led by President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁), Taiwan seeks to maintain a separate identity from China and eventually to declare formal independence. China, which claims sovereignty over Taiwan, has often threatened to use military force to prevent that independence.
In this volatile confrontation, the US has sought both to restrain Taiwan's move toward independence and to dissuade China from using force against Taiwan, for an urgent reason: Hostilities between Taiwan and China would almost certainly involve the US in an all-out war with China that would be immensely costly in blood and treasure.
Fallon, who took charge of the Pacific Command six months ago, is the American proconsul in Asia and the US officer most responsible for maintaining stability across the Taiwan Strait.
That role has become especially vital as President George W. Bush's officials in Washington have become preoccupied with the war on terror, Iraq and the Middle East.
After studying Taiwan's defenses, the US officers said, the admiral has urged the Taiwanese forces to acquire more strictly defensive weapons. Those include missiles for aerial interceptors, ground-based anti-aircraft missiles, attack helicopters and mines to defend the beaches against amphibious invaders, and transport helicopters to move troops against invading paratroopers.
Officers in the Pacific Command headquarters suggested that the arms package featuring offensive weapons such as diesel-electric submarines and destroyers that Bush officials offered to sell Taiwan in 2001 be allowed to fade away. It has languished in Taipei's legislature due to opposition by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT).
Like other US officials, the admiral has recommended that Taiwan increase its defense spending, which has been in decline for a decade. Even supporters of Taiwan in Washington have grumbled that the US should not be expected to defend Taiwan if the Taiwanese are not willing to defend themselves.
The US officers said Fallon would like to see better coordination among ground, sea, and air forces in Taiwan, long a criticism of US military offices. Similarly, he has instructed his staff to find ways to coordinate US and Taiwanese operational planning. Several uniformed US officers have been assigned to the American Institute in Taipei to work on that project.
With China, Fallon plans to renew military exchanges that have been curtailed since a Chinese fighter plane collided with a US EP-3 reconnaissance plane over the South China Sea in 2001. The Chinese pilot died and the American crew landed on the island of Hainan.
The admiral was said to be interested in inviting upper middle grade officers, army colonels and navy captains, to observe US military exercises as a way to establish contact with the next generation of Chinese military leaders. Moreover, demonstrating US capabilities would be a form of deterrence.
In return, the Pacific Command hopes to overcome a shortcoming of the past even when military exchanges were routine, which was that US officers were not permitted to watch Chinese maneuvers.
Politically, the US officers said, Taipei should be persuaded that it must do more to prepare to defend itself. Beijing should be reassured that US actions are neither a prelude to an attack nor an effort to speed Taiwanese independence. And Washington is split among those who advocate forging working relations with Beijing and those who see China as the new evil empire.
Keeping all this in balance and moving forward will not be easy.
Richard Halloran is a writer based in Hawaii.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has long been expansionist and contemptuous of international law. Under Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平), the CCP regime has become more despotic, coercive and punitive. As part of its strategy to annex Taiwan, Beijing has sought to erase the island democracy’s international identity by bribing countries to sever diplomatic ties with Taipei. One by one, China has peeled away Taiwan’s remaining diplomatic partners, leaving just 12 countries (mostly small developing states) and the Vatican recognizing Taiwan as a sovereign nation. Taiwan’s formal international space has shrunk dramatically. Yet even as Beijing has scored diplomatic successes, its overreach
After 37 US lawmakers wrote to express concern over legislators’ stalling of critical budgets, Legislative Speaker Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜) pledged to make the Executive Yuan’s proposed NT$1.25 trillion (US$39.7 billion) special defense budget a top priority for legislative review. On Tuesday, it was finally listed on the legislator’s plenary agenda for Friday next week. The special defense budget was proposed by President William Lai’s (賴清德) administration in November last year to enhance the nation’s defense capabilities against external threats from China. However, the legislature, dominated by the opposition Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), repeatedly blocked its review. The
In her article in Foreign Affairs, “A Perfect Storm for Taiwan in 2026?,” Yun Sun (孫韻), director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington, said that the US has grown indifferent to Taiwan, contending that, since it has long been the fear of US intervention — and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) inability to prevail against US forces — that has deterred China from using force against Taiwan, this perceived indifference from the US could lead China to conclude that a window of opportunity for a Taiwan invasion has opened this year. Most notably, she observes that
The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) said on Monday that it would be announcing its mayoral nominees for New Taipei City, Yilan County and Chiayi City on March 11, after which it would begin talks with the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) to field joint opposition candidates. The KMT would likely support Deputy Taipei Mayor Lee Shu-chuan (李四川) as its candidate for New Taipei City. The TPP is fielding its chairman, Huang Kuo-chang (黃國昌), for New Taipei City mayor, after Huang had officially announced his candidacy in December last year. Speaking in a radio program, Huang was asked whether he would join Lee’s
RSS