Department of Health Minister Hou Sheng-mou (侯勝茂) recently said that next March will be a critical period for a possible outbreak of avian influenza, and that 5.3 million people may be infected. Given the seriousness of the situation, the Cabinet has taken action on the matter, declaring on July 7 that the possible outbreak was a matter of national security.
A National Security Council meeting on the matter was held last Friday at the Presidential Office. As soon as avian flu is discovered to have reached our shores, the government will be able to mobilize promptly and minimize the damage. We should applaud the government's efforts and its willingness to inform the public and its own agencies of the possible crisis that lies ahead.
I am concerned, however, that government agencies at all levels do not have a crisis-management unit for infectious diseases, and this lack may hamper efforts to deal with an outbreak.
The destruction wrought by Typhoon Haitang and the recent escalation of water-supply problems in Taoyuan make me somewhat pessimistic about crisis-response mechanisms.
The water-supply crisis in Taoyuan in particular has exposed the inadequacies of Minister of Economic Affairs Ho Mei-yueh (何美玥), who led the response effort.
That crisis even damaged Premier Frank Hsieh (謝長廷), who was criticized by President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁). In the face of the crisis, the government had to rely on the economics ministry, but it was unable to do much about landslips, water or forest conservation.
The root of the problem is the government's lack of a crisis-management mechanism to ensure inter-departmental coordination.
The Cabinet has a disaster-prevention committee chaired by the vice premier, with the minister of the interior and a minister without portfolio serving as vice chairmen. The National Fire Agency director-general holds the position of vice executive officer, on whose shoulders much of the committee's work falls.
The committee is at its best when dealing with rescue operations, but it is not qualified to deal with matters such as infectious diseases, water resources, soil conservation and landslides.
Under these circumstances, if an epidemic of avian influenza breaks out, and even if health agencies do their best, it is likely that the government will fall into complete disarray.
For example, we saw during the SARS crisis that while Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), Taipei's health commissioner, Hoping Hospital staff and the Department of Health worked hard to prevent spread of SARS, other central government departments barely even acknowledged the crisis.
In other words, while the government is capable of responding to emergencies, there are still many threats that it is unable to deal with effectively due to the lack of interdepartmental cooperation and coordination.
Changes in society have resulted in huge growth of government agencies compared with 20 or even 10 years ago.
The low level of co-ordination between agencies has developed into an increasingly serious problem as the division of labor and authority between them has blurred.
The purpose of establishing crisis-management units is to eliminate such confusion. Threatened by a potential avian-flu crisis, it is necessary for both the central and local governments to establish a mechanism dealing with major infectious diseases.
Yang Yung-nane is professor of administrative management at the Central Police University.
TRANSLATED BY LIN YA-TI
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