Since the visits of Taiwan's opposition leaders to Beijing and their meeting with China's president, articles and commentaries have said that Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) has a "new Taiwan policy." In essence, the policy is that China can live with Taiwan for some time under a "no independence" status quo (though unification is the ultimate goal).
In these circumstances, voters in Taiwan will inevitably be encouraged by this to vote for the status quo, or vote for any candidate that supports it. Many in Taiwan would like that, and many in the US would see this as meeting its cross-strait objectives of a peaceful resolution of the situation, along with the requisite free assent of the people of Taiwan.
If Taiwan accepts the "one China" principle that China demands -- and that seems to have been done unofficially by the party leaders that visited China, who accepted the so-called "1992 consensus" -- then of course the options for Taiwanese voters under the status quo would drop to two: "one country, two systems" of some kind, or unification.
But even without the "one China" principle, the present status quo with its three interpretations is to Beijing's advantage, not Taiwan's. The US' interpretation -- requiring a peaceful resolution of Taiwan's status and the assent of the people of Taiwan for any change in that status -- can be met anytime the two sides agree (though it would have an impact on US regional security objectives).
The other two interpretations of the status quo are much more difficult for each side to accept. Taiwan insists it is sovereign and independent, that any resolution that diminishes this status is unacceptable and that any change must be approved by the people of Taiwan. China simply insists that it has sovereignty over Taiwan and will not accept any alternate resolution.
If there is a new Taiwan policy emanating from Beijing that amounts to gaining the support of a majority of the Taiwanese people for eventual unification, are those who will make that decision ready for it? Hu certainly does not have to worry about getting the consent of the people of China.
The people of Taiwan have responded to frequent polls on what should be pursued with regard to the relationship with China. The latest one, taken for the Mainland Affairs Council, shows that 37.3 percent of Taiwanese prefer the status quo, with a decision later on resolving the situation; 22.6 percent opt for the status quo indefinitely; 14.1 percent opt for the status quo with independence later; and 11.9 percent prefer the status quo with unification later. The remaining respondents favor independence now (5.2 percent) and unification now (1.2 percent).
That tells us that 85.9 percent of those polled would rather not make a decision now, if ever. Of course, these figures can be manipulated, depending on one's bias. The first two numbers can be used by either independence or unification supporters to bolster their arguments.
The conventional wisdom in Taiwan and the US is that a large majority prefer independence, but are cautious in saying so. Those with a unification bias point out that the majority of Taiwan's legislators -- who presumably represent their constituencies -- are members of the parties whose leaders visited Beijing recently.
As I pointed out in a previous article, if counting noses is to be used to determine Taiwan's status, the status quo option is not very helpful. It would leave the US side uncertain about how to proceed, and the other two sides in yet another standoff over how to count votes.
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