With the conclusion of the Chinese Nationalist Party's (KMT) chairmanship election, commentators and journalists have begun providing extensive speculation on the 2008 presidential race. I, however, would like to consider Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou's (
Now that Ma is to hold both positions, he will be more likely to be accepted as supreme leader of the pan-blue camp. Following the central government's decision to downsize the provincial government in 1998, any political figures coveting the presidency or seeking the chairmanship of a political party had to have served either as Taipei mayor, Kaohsiung mayor or Taipei County commissioner -- for these constituencies are rich sources of votes. So Ma is now emerging as a formidable presidential hopeful.
On the other side, the year-end mayoral and county commissioner elections and next year's mayoral elections in Taipei and Kaohsiung are sure to grow increasingly intense, as they will determine the next green-camp presidential candidate.
Even with the total number of seats in the legislature halved and the redrawing of electoral districts, the legislative elections will still be far less significant than the mayoral and county commissioner elections.
The legislative elections are merely a springboard for those contending for mayoral and county commissioner elections. As a result, the government will focus on administrative affairs rather than upholding the importance of the lawmaking body.
Ma, as Taipei mayor, will continue to attend the weekly Cabinet meeting. But now we have a situation in which the chairman of an opposition party can directly participate in the processes of the Executive Yuan and put pressure on the government to craft policies with his stamp on them. Under these circumstances, room opens up for more confrontation between the government and the opposition.
Furthermore, a legislature-style question-and-answer session could take shape in Cabinet meetings. If this happens, it is not going to help Premier Frank Hsieh (
What is also noteworthy is that with the Taipei mayor about to double as KMT chairman, the status of the special municipalities will be enhanced once again -- Taipei in particular. Over the years, the central government has sought to nurture special municipalities such as Taipei and Kaohsiung, and has taken less notice of other cities and counties, even ignoring the development of villages and townships throughout the country.
What's worse, national resources -- including the tax redistribution fund -- will be allocated increasingly to the special municipalities or larger counties. Such a policy will not lead to balanced development across different regions.
After taking up the KMT chairmanship, Ma will probably seek to appoint his officials in Taipei to high-ranking positions in the KMT, suggesting that local government officials will begin to play an active role in the operations of the party.
From the point of view of local government autonomy, it is a good thing to see these officials given a chance to serve at higher levels.
However, if such promotions only apply to more influential administrative regions such as Taipei City, Kaohsiung City and Taipei County, it will only result in a negative effect on regional development.
Chen Chao-chien is an assistant professor at the department of public affairs at Ming Chuan University.
TRANSLATED BY DANIEL CHENG
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