During Monday evening's meeting with members of Taiwan's business community based in China, Premier Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) called upon the Mainland Affairs Council and other organizations to agree to reciprocal, non-stop chartered cargo flights with China, the direct sale of Taiwanese agricultural produce there and the relaxing of restrictions on Chinese tourists.
Contact with China is of course beneficial, especially in the economic sense. But the key issue here is that China is a country with a planned economy. Its private sector can be manipulated by the government. Moreover, policy decisions often depend on the whim of officials. This makes the risks very significant.
If Beijing follows through with its offer to allow Taiwanese produce to be sold in China, and lets tourists come to Taiwan, there will be big profits for certain industries. It is highly likely that costly investment in the agricultural and tourism industries will grow to meet increased demand.
But if Beijing decides to reverse this policy, the investment, which usually takes many years to have proper returns, will be threatened, and pressure will be placed on the government to bow to whatever conditions Beijing cares to impose. Beijing intends to use the private sector to pressure the government and the government must be prepared for this.
On the other hand, according to a report published by Japan's Ministry of Land and Transportation last week, 44 Chinese visitors went missing between January and last month, an increase of 57 percent from the same period last year. Since the Japanese government allowed Chinese tourist groups to enter Japan in 2000, the number of tourists overstaying visas reached 362. Some Chinese arrive in Singapore with fake papers to gain admission to local schools, after which they engage in activities such as prostitution or swindling senior citizens. China-friendly nations such as France and Australia are also faced with similar problems.
Although being open to China can generate tourism revenue, these countries have also paid a high price in other ways. Is this a burden that Taiwan wants to assume?
Given the international reports of fake marriages, illegal immigration, prostitution, illegal labor and even intelligence-gathering, and bearing in mind the disappearances of Chinese tourist groups in July and August last year, Hsieh must give this issue serious consideration. Aren't there enough illegal immigrants locked up in Taiwan's detention centers?
The Cabinet should spare the public any more nonsense about how the government will regulate and guarantee an effective management policy, because the solution to many of these issues depends on Beijing, not Taipei. This fact alone does not bode well for increased contact.
The Cabinet needs to offer the public a very clear explanation of how it will handle the effects of deregulating cross-strait contact, so that these policies and their probable consequences can be reviewed and challenged by the public.
This may be the only way to form a policy with a high degree of public agreement. This is important if the public is going to bear the consequences of such actions.
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