China is in a foul mood because the world is not heeding its destiny -- at least some of the recalcitrant nations. It regards itself as a superpower. Even if it is not yet there, China has a sense of entitlement because of its rapid economic growth and past glory. But when it faces some resistance to fulfilling its destiny, its ruling oligarchy tends to throw a fit. The trouble is that it is starting to happen too often and can get out of hand. Presently, Japan is at the receiving end.
Taiwan, though, is constantly under threat, with Chinese missiles -- their numbers increasing all the time -- targeted at it. With the recently enacted "Anti-Secession" Law, China believes it now has the legal authority to go after Taiwan if and when it decides that any activities might look like Taipei is going in the direction of formal independence.
The idea was that this will, sooner rather than later, create a political crisis to threaten President Chen Shui-bian's (
China is also disappointed at another level. They were hoping that the US would remain stuck with Iraq and global terrorism, enabling China to do its own thing -- like terrorizing Taiwan. Though the US is still pretty much preoccupied with the Middle East, it is slowly broadening its strategic horizons to take note of China. Washington, for instance, worked energetically to dissuade the EU from lifting its arms embargo on China. It has, therefore, thwarted Beijing -- for the time being at least -- from playing Brussels against Washington.
As Jia Qingguo of Peking University's School of International Studies has said, "America changed after 9/11 from a focus on China in a negative light and onto terrorism, so the Chinese government had a few years' breathing space ? But now we see the US devoting increasing attention to China."
This is indeed quite disappointing from their viewpoint.
Beijing feels hurt and angry that the US is standing in the way of it annexing Taiwan. It had hoped that the "strategic partnership" between the two countries to contain the Soviet Union would also rub off onto Taiwan, with the US facilitating its annexation. The collapse of the Soviet Union put an end to that.
And when China sought to test the waters in 1996 during Bill Clinton's presidency by threatening to invade Taiwan, Washington dispatched two aircraft carriers to deter Beijing. And now, despite the Iraq quagmire, the US is still standing in the way.
Taiwan, in a way, has become the litmus test of China's nationalist credentials. With its ideology almost defunct, nationalism is all China's communist oligarchy is left with to legitimize its rule of the country.
And now Japan is feeling the heat, with an all-pervasive anti-Japanese upsurge overtaking China. Beijing wants Japan to live under the shadow of its past wartime crimes, leaving the field open for China to dominate the region. Tokyo is refusing to follow China's script. Worse still, it is pushing its candidacy for a permanent UN Security Council seat in the event of its expansion.
Japan is belatedly striving to become a normal power, anxious to assert its valid national interests. It fears that China is a threat to its security. Tokyo spelled it out recently in its defense documents, putting the China threat on par with North Korea. Beijing wasn't amused.
Japan has also reacted strongly to Chinese naval incursions, including research and survey vessels, into its waters. And to compound its sins, it has joined with the US in regarding the situation in the Taiwan Strait as a common strategic interest. In other words, Japan is now an active partner with the US in regional defense.
In this strategic game, China's show of hurt national pride -- over revisions to Japanese text books, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's visits to Yasukuni shrine and Japan's lack of contrition for its war crimes -- is just a red herring. The real issue is: How dare Japan stand up and become part of the US strategy, because of their shared interests, to forestall China from dominating the Asia-Pacific region.
Beijing has embarked on a strategy to politically marginalize the US in this region. It is using an economic and political charm offensive by way of the lure of free trade agreements, and through regional organizations (ASEAN and an East Asia caucus in the making), to gradually ease the US out of the region.
As a US ally, Japan might also find itself ostracized in its own region. Its alternatives, apart from becoming part of China's East Asia Co-prosperity Sphere, are as follows: First, it could develop its own autonomous defense, and the political role to go with it, to deal with China. It has the resources and technology to do it. This is a long term option, and is not terribly practical when China seems right at the door. Besides, because of its wartime record, any large-scale military program for autonomous defense will raise regional hackles. China is already thirsting to mobilize the region to put Japan in the dock on the question of textbook revisions. But so far, apart from South Korea, other Asian countries are not ready to jump into the fray.
If autonomous defense is impractical, Japan's only option is a security alliance with the US entailing a more active role than has hitherto been the case. And that is what Tokyo is exercising, to Beijing's great chagrin.
Japan and the US know that if China were to invade Taiwan and gobble it up, its dominance of the Asia-Pacific region would become a reality. So far China is managing to create an appearance of regional primacy. But with Taiwan captured, there would be few countries in the region willing to stand up to China.
Therefore, the stakes are high as to when Beijing might decide to lunge against Taiwan. In the meantime, it is working overtime to create a parallel center of power in Taipei to sideline the Chen administration. At the same time, Japan will continue to invite China's wrath and intimidation, to maintain and consolidate nationalist sentiments behind its communist oligarchy.
Sushil Seth is a freelance writer based in Sydney.
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