At a time when China is actively pursuing an "anti-secession law," Taiwan is rushing to embrace direct cargo flights across the Strait based on the flights that took place over the Lunar New Year. However, the possible negative impact of direct cargo flights is much greater than for passenger flights. The government should think twice before actively pursuing such cross-strait links.
Now that the Lunar New Year is over, Taiwan and China intend to begin negotiations about cargo flights based on the Macau talks, with the goal of establishing multi-destinational, two-way and non-stop cargo flights as a milestone in cross-strait cargo shipment.
Most Taiwanese businesspeople invest in China to take advantage of cheap land and labor. By setting up factories there, it is also easier for them to break into the Chinese market. The proposed cargo flights will help solve the transportation problems faced by Taiwanese businesses in China and facilitate shipment of various goods. But such cargo flights will inevitably accelerate the outflow of the nation's capital to China and may also act as a catalyst for the relocation of many Taiwanese industries.
On the other hand, after the opening of direct cargo flights, low-cost and low-quality products made in China will flood Taiwan's market, overwhelming domestic products. This will make it even more difficult for struggling industries to survive, forcing factory closures and escalating unemployment.
The government's plan to push ahead with cross-strait cargo flights may be intended to enhance the nation's competitiveness, but the proposed plan seems beneficial to Taiwanese businessmen in the short term and detrimental in the long run. In the short term, the plan will boost Taiwan's industries connected with China. In the long term, the side effects of the policy will certainly include the relocation of Taiwanese industries, an outflow of capital and increased unemployment -- symptoms similar to those suffered by Hong Kong prior to its reversion to Chinese rule. Just like Hong Kong, Taiwan will also not be able to resist the fate of being annexed by China.
If Taiwan were to become part of China as a consequence of a long-standing outflow of capital and the relocation of industries, the nation's economy would sink into irreparable recession. Therefore, the government must formulate a strategy to deal with the side effects caused by direct cargo flights.
The charter flights during the Lunar New Year holiday and direct cargo flights differ in one fundamental way: The former are limited to a special holiday period, while the latter would be routine flights on a daily basis. For direct passenger flights during the Lunar New Year, the government could say such flights "simulated" cargo flights across the Taiwan Strait. But the impact is going to be far greater than that of the charter flights for the Lunar New Year.
The government's cross-strait policy is described as "actively opening, effective management." While there is plenty of "opening," "effective management" is lacking. As for opening up, this can be seen in the active pursuit of direct Lunar New Year passenger and cargo flights -- and in the wake of the United Microelectronics Corp (UMC) case, it seems that the government's attitude to investment in China has also relaxed.
But we have yet to see any sign of management mechanisms being put in place that resemble an opening up of cross-strait relations. And of the mechanisms already in place, the UMC case has highlighted just how imperfect these relations are.
Therefore, before the government pushes any further in promoting direct cargo flights, a consensus among political parties and the public must be reached. The government needs to resolve the legal and economic problems that will arise as a result of direct cargo flights before entering into negotiations on the issue.
Because much of what former US president Donald Trump says is unhinged and histrionic, it is tempting to dismiss all of it as bunk. Yet the potential future president has a populist knack for sounding alarums that resonate with the zeitgeist — for example, with growing anxiety about World War III and nuclear Armageddon. “We’re a failing nation,” Trump ranted during his US presidential debate against US Vice President Kamala Harris in one particularly meandering answer (the one that also recycled urban myths about immigrants eating cats). “And what, what’s going on here, you’re going to end up in World War
Earlier this month in Newsweek, President William Lai (賴清德) challenged the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to retake the territories lost to Russia in the 19th century rather than invade Taiwan. He stated: “If it is for the sake of territorial integrity, why doesn’t [the PRC] take back the lands occupied by Russia that were signed over in the treaty of Aigun?” This was a brilliant political move to finally state openly what many Chinese in both China and Taiwan have long been thinking about the lost territories in the Russian far east: The Russian far east should be “theirs.” Granted, Lai issued
On Tuesday, President William Lai (賴清德) met with a delegation from the Hoover Institution, a think tank based at Stanford University in California, to discuss strengthening US-Taiwan relations and enhancing peace and stability in the region. The delegation was led by James Ellis Jr, co-chair of the institution’s Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific Region project and former commander of the US Strategic Command. It also included former Australian minister for foreign affairs Marise Payne, influential US academics and other former policymakers. Think tank diplomacy is an important component of Taiwan’s efforts to maintain high-level dialogue with other nations with which it does
On Sept. 2, Elbridge Colby, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for strategy and force development, wrote an article for the Wall Street Journal called “The US and Taiwan Must Change Course” that defends his position that the US and Taiwan are not doing enough to deter the People’s Republic of China (PRC) from taking Taiwan. Colby is correct, of course: the US and Taiwan need to do a lot more or the PRC will invade Taiwan like Russia did against Ukraine. The US and Taiwan have failed to prepare properly to deter war. The blame must fall on politicians and policymakers