The Donald Keyser case has all the qualities of the classic Japanese film Rashomon, in which four different people give four radically different accounts of the same events.
Everyone involved in the Keyser case is telling a different story, and the flap has generated hubbub in all sectors of society.
The Taiwan government is now in damage control mode, looking for the source of the incident and the "spy" behind it.
But if it doesn't handle this case in an appropriate manner, it could do irreparable harm to Taiwan-US relations.
There are four respects in which the Keyser affair is likely to affect Taiwan. First, Keyser, who was in line to be the next chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan, will now certainly not be taking up that post.
It is questionable whether another nominee will be as favorable to Taiwan.
Second, revelations of a "national security" leak will make US officials less forthcoming and more secretive in their regular meetings with Taiwanese officials and academics at Taiwan's US representative office.
Third, the official counterpart of Taiwan's National Security Bureau (NSB) is the CIA, but on the insistence of high officials in the US government, the matter is being handled by the State Department.
As the case has affected regular diplomatic and intelligence-gathering operations, it is possible that there will be friction between the diplomatic and national security units within Taiwan's representative office in the US.
Fourth, in the short term at least, the morale of intelligence agents working with the US will take a blow, and their freedom of action may also be more constrained.
In the investigation of the Keyser case, Taiwan may be able to minimize the damage to Taiwan-US relations and trust if it faces the matter truthfully, cooperates fully with the US, rewards and fairly punishes those involved and -- most of all -- maintains clear lines of diplomatic communication.
Even as national security and foreign affairs agencies try to limit the damage, the government should act on the idea that "honesty is the best policy."
But ultimately, compared to the issues that will impact mutual trust between the two countries, these are only peripheral matters.
September of last year, when Keyser made his secret visit to Taiwan, was a time when that trust had sharply deteriorated. Certainly, when President Chen Shui-bian (
But it was the announcement of the referendum question last June that pushed the relationship to a crisis point.
The situation got so bad that US President George Bush criticized Chen, albeit without referring to him by name, for wishing to change the status quo.
From that time relations between the US, China and Taiwan have been tense. Key events include Chen's many post-election press conferences proposing to amend the Constitution through a referendum, visits by US Vice President Dick Cheney and National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice to China in April and July respectively, repeated warnings to Taiwan from James Kelly, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and James Moriarty of the National Security Council, China's proposal to formulate a "unification" law, its Taiwan Affairs Office's May 17 declaration [to "put a resolute check on Taiwan independence activities"] and rumors of Bush's remarks expressing criticism of Chen.
In these circumstances, the quality of intelligence gathered through regular channels by Taiwan's representatives in the US is unlikely to satisfy the Chen administration.
Therefore, pressure on NSB personnel to gather intelligence will increase. And under this extreme pressure even highly trained operatives may make mistakes.
The Keyser case is different from conventional cases of diplomatic or intelligence personnel breaking the rules. Strictly speaking, it is a political case. Its significance depends on how it is considered.
I believe the best way to resolve the Keyser case is to discover its root cause.
That is to say, we should look at the big picture, and seek to reverse the decline in Taiwan-US relations of the last few years.
For example, in meeting the US demand that Taiwan not alter the status quo, we must do what we say and not try to play word games with the Americans. In the context of US-China-Taiwan relations, we should probably take a new tack, implementing policies that benefit the US, but also meet our own interests.
We must build on our commercial and technical strength, seek security assurances from the US and at the same time seek parity in our commercial dealings with China.
The Americans are great believers in mutual trust, and we must not promise them one thing and do another.
Only through matching our words with actions can we rebuild trust between the US and Taiwan, and thereby improve our relationship and enhance our security.
Edward Chen is the director of the Graduate Institute of American Studies at Tamkang University.
Translated by Ian Bartholomew
Two sets of economic data released last week by the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) have drawn mixed reactions from the public: One on the nation’s economic performance in the first quarter of the year and the other on Taiwan’s household wealth distribution in 2021. GDP growth for the first quarter was faster than expected, at 6.51 percent year-on-year, an acceleration from the previous quarter’s 4.93 percent and higher than the agency’s February estimate of 5.92 percent. It was also the highest growth since the second quarter of 2021, when the economy expanded 8.07 percent, DGBAS data showed. The growth
In the intricate ballet of geopolitics, names signify more than mere identification: They embody history, culture and sovereignty. The recent decision by China to refer to Arunachal Pradesh as “Tsang Nan” or South Tibet, and to rename Tibet as “Xizang,” is a strategic move that extends beyond cartography into the realm of diplomatic signaling. This op-ed explores the implications of these actions and India’s potential response. Names are potent symbols in international relations, encapsulating the essence of a nation’s stance on territorial disputes. China’s choice to rename regions within Indian territory is not merely a linguistic exercise, but a symbolic assertion
More than seven months into the armed conflict in Gaza, the International Court of Justice ordered Israel to take “immediate and effective measures” to protect Palestinians in Gaza from the risk of genocide following a case brought by South Africa regarding Israel’s breaches of the 1948 Genocide Convention. The international community, including Amnesty International, called for an immediate ceasefire by all parties to prevent further loss of civilian lives and to ensure access to life-saving aid. Several protests have been organized around the world, including at the University of California Los Angeles (UCLA) and many other universities in the US.
Every day since Oct. 7 last year, the world has watched an unprecedented wave of violence rain down on Israel and the occupied Palestinian Territories — more than 200 days of constant suffering and death in Gaza with just a seven-day pause. Many of us in the American expatriate community in Taiwan have been watching this tragedy unfold in horror. We know we are implicated with every US-made “dumb” bomb dropped on a civilian target and by the diplomatic cover our government gives to the Israeli government, which has only gotten more extreme with such impunity. Meantime, multicultural coalitions of US