Reports have emerged from the Chinese Nationalist Party's (KMT) top leadership that the pan-blue camp -- the KMT, the People First Party (PFP) and the New Party -- will announce a formal merger in October. If this is the case then nominees from all three parties might participate in the year-end legislative elections on a KMT ticket in order to increase the blue camp's share of legislator-at-large seats. Rumors of a merger between the blue camp parties are not new, but each time they appear, it seems to be more bark than bite, and nothing ever comes of it.
Although KMT Vice Chairman and Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (
It is true that the KMT version of the pan-blue merger might create an image of a united pan-blue camp. With every pan-blue candidate running on a KMT ticket, votes for the KMT, PFP and New Party votes can be added together, which could add one or two extra legislator-at-large seats to the blue camp's count. In a situation where the blue and green camps are fighting for a legislative majority, this strategy may turn out to be very effective.
In practical terms, however, there are innumerable problems in the realization of this idea. Prior to the nominations, a pan-blue merger was resisted because if it actually came to be, the number of candidates that each party could field in the election would be reduced. As the KMT and PFP have fielded more candidates than they have seats, an expanded pan-blue slate under the KMT banner will have an excessive amount of candidates for each district. The result will be that in multi-member electoral districts, once the campaigns begin, the real battle will be between candidates from within the pan-blue camp, thus splitting the blue vote.
The PFP also fears that if they run under the banner the KMT, they will be relegated to second-class status. Affected by such internal conflict, a blue camp working under one banner would probably win fewer seats and current pan-blue legislators would likely garner fewer votes.
It's likely that Taiwan's parliamentary politics will become increasingly confrontational between the blue and green camps, and also that there will be a reshuffle within both camps. But a merger is rather like a romance in which there needs to be loved and tolerated. You cannot be too impatient, otherwise you will never get what you want.
The pan-greens realize that it is necessary for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) to cooperate, but with regard to a merger, the pan-greens are still waiting for the right time.
A merger between the KMT and PFP is dominated by intrigue and selfish motives, and they have said too much and done too little to achieve this goal. It might be more appropriate if the KMT, PFP and the New Party wait until after the election to consider a merger based on the political situation then.
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