Print

Mail

wiki links

Referendum requires a rethink of strategy

From a long-term perspective of international politics, the most important event in Taiwan this year will be the referendum, rather than the presidential election or even the response to the two referendum questions.

The referendum's significance lies in its long-term impact on the nation's strategic development.

The referendum mechanism is similar to the deployment of nuclear weapons in the sense that its strategic significance affects the international interests and tactical choices of surrounding countries. That is why Taiwan needs to formulate a new international strategy for the referendum.

Why are referendums similar to nuclear weapons? First, developing nuclear arms is a strategy that will have an impact for decades to come, while having limited immediate use. Second, nuclear arms present a capacity of mass destruction against enemies. Yet, retaliation on the same scale is also possible. To possess nuclear arms is to possess a means of intimidation that can achieve a balance of terror with an enemy.

Third, countries can be roughly categorized into three groups: non-nuclear, small nuclear and big nuclear. Countries without nuclear weapons usually have different strategies from those who have them. Small nuclear countries also develop different strategies from their large counterparts.

Fourth, a country's use of, threat to use, or attempt to develop nuclear weapons usually invokes a fierce reaction and possibly intervention from the major powers or neighboring countries. A series of changes in international politics, as well as changes in the regional or global strategic structure may follow as a result.

So how is a referendum similar to nuclear armament?

If Taiwan is under an external threat, it can use a referendum to safeguard its sovereignty and to nullify a foreign power's legitimacy to alter its sovereign status. Although no large-scale physical damage will be prevented by the referendum, the legitimate and democratic appeal will force the international community to notice Taiwan's situation. International influence will put the external force that poses a threat to Taiwan in a dilemma -- either continue its threats against the wishes of the international community, or cease the threats.

If Taiwan uses the referendum to change the status quo, a strong reaction can be expected from China and the US. The impact would be equivalent to detonating a nuclear bomb. A referendum on sovereignty thus carries a political capacity equivalent to a small nuclear bomb, but without the physical destruction.

We do not need to analyze the fact that Taiwan has a referendum mechanism. What we need to analyze is how to use it. It is better to be equipped with a self-protection mechanism than without. Yet, possession of a more powerful mechanism also implies greater risks to be undertaken. Taiwan has to develop a new international strategic view as regards the referendum. This is an issue that will be faced by the next president.

First, we should be aware of the international strategic significance implied by possession of the referendum mechanism. Second, with the knowledge of the potential impact of the mechanism on international politics, we should develop a set of strategies specifying how and when to use a referendum.

Taiwan should develop a different strategic view now that we have the referendum mechanism. A country that uses nuclear arms with the mindset of a traditional weapons user will not be able to enjoy the privileges of a nuclear country. Even worse, the improper use of the nuclear weapons may result in harm to a country's self interest. The presidential candidates should explain their international strategic views about the referendum.

Hsu Szu-chien is an assistant research fellow at the Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica.

Translated by Jennie Shih
This story has been viewed 2477 times.