A major security concern in East Asia is the second North Korean nuclear crisis. After admitting to having a secret uranium enrichment program during a meeting with US officials on Oct. 16 last year, North Korea has steadily escalated tensions by ejecting International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors, walking away from the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, claiming to restart the reprocessing of its 8,000 plutonium rods and threatening to detonate a nuclear bomb.
The US, China, the two Koreas, Japan and Russia held talks last month in Beijing to discuss this issue, but could only agree to hold another round of multilateral talks. Even this was retracted by Pyongyang a day later.
While, the US, China, Japan, Russia and the two Koreas are the usually seen as the relevant players in the Korean Peninsula crisis, Taiwan has significant stake too, albeit indirectly.
First, since the US-Japan alliance has become the most important regional shaper of the Asia-Pacific since US President George W. Bush and Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi took office in 2001, any event that might affect that alliance will have a significant impact on East Asian security arrangements in general and to Taiwan in particular.
That alliance was readjusted in 1996 because of the 1994 North Korean nuclear crisis, so this second crisis is the first direct test of the redefined alliance. Since Taiwan's security and regional engagement depends heavily on the strength and capability of the US-Japan alliance, Taipei will be highly sensitive to the credibility perception and any possible future adjustments of this alliance.
Second, since the alliance usually takes a parallel view on the Korean Peninsula crisis and events in the Taiwan Strait, the procedure for managing the North Korean nuclear crisis might set the precedence for the management of a Strait crisis if one were to occur. Taiwan has a legitimate need for being in the loop of the US-Japan crisis management because this would help Taipei gain a more realistic idea of what the US-Japan alliance could do.
Some people worry that the US will trade its security commitment to Taiwan to obtain China's cooperation in the North Korean crisis. Judging from the Bush administration's strong security commitment to Taiwan, this is not much of a worry. Taiwan's concerns are the Chinese threat and maintaining good US-Taiwan relations.
The state of Sino-American relations does not necessarily affect US-Taiwan and cross-strait affairs, at least not under the Bush administration. Taiwan should not distract itself by worrying too much how the Sino-US relation evolves. I believe Taiwan should focus on bettering its ties with the US by clearly articulating its strategic goals and finding ways to meaningfully coordinate its goals with those of the US. The best way to sustain a robust relationship with the US is to work on this relationship itself, rather than to complain about the status of Sino-American relations.
Looking at the last century, two events that fundamentally changed Taiwan's international status were connected to the Korean Peninsula. The 1894 Sino-Japan war over the peninsula resulted in the permanent cession of Taiwan to Japan. The Korean War brought Taiwan back into the US security orbit. The impact of the North Korean nuclear crisis on the US-Japan alliance, and to a lesser extent, the Sino-American relation, will shape the security environment surrounding Taiwan. The outcome will significantly influence the nation's regional strategy. It is important not to neglect Taiwan's substantial stake in the development of the North Korean nuclear crisis.
Lai I-chung is the director of foreign policy studies at the Taiwan Thinktank.
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