Sun, Dec 08, 2002 page9

• What next for election contenders?

  Now that the votes are in, both the winners and losers will have to get to work to sort out the problems highlighted by their campaigns

  • By Chiu Hei-yuan 瞿海源
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  The DPP's Taipei mayoral nominee Lee Ying-yuan (李應元) gave a decent performance despite the odds stacked up against him, including his tough-to-beat opponent Mayor Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) and a sluggish economy for which many blaming his party. Even more noteworthy is the crisis facing the DPP -- an emerging succession gap revealed by the process through which Lee became the DPP nominee.

  While Lee may have lost the election, overall he did not come out empty handed. Not only did Ma fail to garner more than one million votes, which was allegedly the number of votes he was targeting, but his winning margin was smaller than anticipated by the numerous media polls.

  

  ILLUSTRATION: MOUNTAIN PEOPLE

  Ma and Lee respectively garnered around 870,000 and 470,000 votes, which rounded up to approximately 64 percent and 35 percent of the votes. These figures were roughly consistent with the DPP's own polls before the election. Lee's worst nightmare about getting only about 17 percent to 18 percent of the votes, as predicted by media polls, did not come true. Facing Ma, who is apparently able to miraculously penetrate ethnic and party lines, Lee at least managed to keep the traditional DPP supporters from drifting away.

  Even more importantly, the process through which the mayoral nomination fell into Lee's lap has an entirely different impact for Lee personally and the DPP as a party. Lee was hand picked by President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) as the Taipei mayoral nominee of the DPP when no one else was willing to stand against an extremely popular Mayor Ma. Poll after poll had consistently revealed that around 70 percent of the Taipei residents were satisfied with Ma's performance. While popular satisfaction with performance in office does not necessarily translate into votes, Ma nevertheless had a virtually guaranteed victory from the beginning.

  Under the circumstances, many DPP politicians who had previously indicated an intention to bid for the DPP's mayoral nomination, including lawmaker Sheng Fu-hsiung (沈富雄), decided to back out. Bluntly put, Lee was asked to go on a suicide mission that no one else wanted. The party now owes him one for the sacrifice and service he made, and this can only elevate his stature within the party. Besides, as a result of this election, Lee had invaluable gained national exposure and notoriety.

  On the other hand, the fact that DPP was unable to produce a willing and more competitive candidate suggests a serious succession gap within the party. Where is the new generation of political stars lining up to take over the reigns of power? That is not a question to be slighted. Presumably, President Chen will run for re-election in 2004, but what about 2008?

  Many people have been speculating about the impact of the Taipei and Kaohsiung mayoral elections on the 2004 presidential election. But, the correlation, if any, is probably limited. After all, unlike the presidential election at the national level, these elections are local elections. Voters have entirely different concerns.

  No less interesting is the PFP's role in the elections. Facts indicate the PFP did not have the strength to play a pivotal role in either mayoral election. Of course, being the cunning politician that he is, PFP Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) tried to get into the center of things. So, he got on his knees in public, pleading with the voters to support Ma while stopping by at Ma's rally the night before the election. Without any doubt, the kneeling act was highly inappropriate, to say the least, but it was done for a purpose. As for what that purpose may be, it is pointless to speculate.

  Aggravating the situation for Soong and his party was the fact that PFP did not do well in the city councilor elections either. Under the circumstances, unless Soong can somehow convince KMT Chairman Lien Chan (連戰) into an agreement to have Soong run as the presidential candidate jointly endorsed by the pan-blue camp, Soong risks becoming marginalized. Once that happens, the PFP will also be marginalized, since the party is essentially a one-man party. Without Soong, there is no PFP.

  Unfortunately, it will be difficult for Soong to convince Lien, since the KMT gave an okay performance this time. Not only was Ma re-elected without a hitch, but the KMT's candidate Huang Jun-ying (黃俊英) gave DPP's incumbent candidate Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) a real scare. Not to mention the fact that it would have been difficult to integrate the pan-blue for the 2004 presidential election to begin with. The same old question remains -- between Lien and Soong: Who is going to run for the presidency? Neither will want to back out be willing to serve as a sidekick. So, although everyone within the pan-blue knows too well that if they integrate, they will win, no one knows how to make that happen.

  In fact, the difficulty of a pan-blue integration was also evident in the chaotic process through which Huang finally became the Kaohsiung mayoral candidate. In particular, Soong's endorsement and backing came only a few days before the election.

  Under the circumstances, the interaction between the KMT and the PFP leading up to the next presidential election will interesting to observe in the days to come.

  Chiu Hei-yuan (瞿海源) is a sociology professor at the National Taiwan University and a member of the Taipei Society.
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