Historic opportunity awaits
The positions of global politics will reach critical mass within the next six years and Taiwan will reach a point in history that will offer an unprecedented opportunity. There are only two major political events that must occur for the "perfect moment" to be created under which Taiwan may openly declare its independence.
The first is the US presidential election in 2004 -- George W. Bush must win. The second is the presidential election in Taiwan -- Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) must also win.
Moreover, Russia has joined NATO, forging new alliances with the US in the process. Making this friendship possible is a realization that no stable world power would actually use a nuclear strike for the purposes of taking over a country. As Japan will soon experience greater trust and more opportunity from the US, Japan is expected to carry its own weight militarily and perhaps its own entry into NATO. The noose around Beijing would then tighten significantly.
With the Olympic Games comes added responsibility and expectations across the globe. China will be flooded with tourists. While Beijing smiles at the attention and cash flow, they could be blindsided by a declaration of independence by Taiwan. The world would be watching, not just on television, but in person -- cameras and camcorders in hand to catch all the action.
Beijing would have at least two possible initial responses. First, it could attack. But during the Olympic Games -- with millions of foreigners on its soil -- this is unlikely.
However, should the US strategically place some troops and ships, any attack on Taiwan could be perceived as an attack on the US, drawing in the members of NATO of which Russia has become a part, and drawing the ire of future NATO member Japan.
Any attack on Taiwan would certainly draw in the US under Bush, who has honestly stated the US position, even if having to backtrack later to soothe tensions. War would also hurt the Chinese economy significantly enough to undermine any world presence it has sought to establish by its entry into the WTO.
Second, it could wait and do nothing. Initially, Beijing could wait and float a few strong words. Sympathy and sentiment would be on the side of Taiwan, and world pressure would mount against Beijing. While it could tighten security all it wants during the Olympics, it could not effect a military campaign and expect any support from the global community. Any attack during such a time would draw resentment upon China, and encourage sympathy for Taiwan.
Should world events continue as predicted, that would give Beijing six years to find a way to save face.
Beijing would also be very busy because there is a great underflow of resentment against the government among the younger generation in China.
With a declaration of independence by Taiwan during such a critical moment in history, Beijing may face yet another Tiananmen square. Time and influence have a way of changing who holds the guns, and it just may be that when the soldiers march into Tiananmen square the next time, the guns will not be pointed at the crowd, but at those officials who still seek to prevent a more democratic form of government.
Six years is a long time, and those students who survived in 1989 will be nearing their forties -- some of whom might have even taken positions in government and even risen in rank in the military. "Things united must divide, and things divided must unite." China is not divided between the mainland and Taiwan, it is divided within itself, and it is very likely that the next banner this country unites under will be very different indeed.
Wang Wei
Chengdu, China
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