Compared to past polls, this year's legislative election campaign has a feeling of desolation about it. There are few large billboard advertisements. Flyers in newspapers are few and far between. Campaign trucks no longer roam the streets. Democracy seems to have become the norm in Taiwan. It may not be a good thing, however, to have an electorate as hard to mobilize as an old monk in deep meditation.
The candidates' enthusiasm for the fight, by contrast, has been extraordinary, at a time when the old party system is coming apart and new parties are fighting to replace it. People able to generate a minimal level of media publicity feel this gives them a chance of winning, so an extraordinary number of people have registered to run.
Because cable TV is already bringing information to every family, candidates appear to have lost their interest in holding public hearings and presenting their platforms. They are also being as frugal as possible, given the difficulty of raising funds. Joint evening rallies, therefore, due to the minimal costs involved, are thriving as if there is yet another presidential election going on.
Not knowing where your voters are is the biggest challenge in a national election. Legislators and county and city chiefs are ready-made vote machines. Voters regularly support presidential candidates from the party of these officials. Therefore, people with presidential ambitions must struggle to alter these ingrained voting patterns by canvassing the nation. Both President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) and People First Party Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) must struggle to build these connections. Neither dare limit himself to his own party's supporters.
Amidst the current partisan balance, public support seems split between the three major parties. The KMT, however, still appears quite far from fielding a candidate with the stature that Chen or Soong presently enjoy. Until the pan-blue camp can successfully integrate, or in other words, until the KMT and PFP can negotiate a joint presidential ticket, the pan-blue camp's forthcoming presidential campaign will depend on Soong's ability to nibble away at the KMT. We can see that the PFP's main objective now is to translate Soong's presidential support into legislative seats. The PFP is therefore unwilling to challenge the DPP head-on, apart from some occasional, perfunctory clashes.
For the KMT and the DPP, the most urgent task is to defend their territories, prevent traditional supporters from draining away and to stop the PFP and Taiwan Solidarity Union from eroding their support bases. This is especially true of the post-Lee KMT. As the ruling party, the DPP now has state resources at its disposal. For the first time, the DPP has the power to promise development for cities and counties. Maintaining an appearance of harmony through joint campaign rallies is the best way to persuade traditional supporters to divide their votes according to voter allocation plans. But one can never be sure how many die-hard supporters one really has.
A sluggish economy is usually a disadvantage for the ruling party, but voters do not necessarily have fixed opinions on who should take responsibility for the slowdown. In terms of their vision for Taiwan's future, there is no substantial difference between the political parties. Not only are the politicians at a loss over what to fight for but the voters are also unclear about the basis on which they should cast their votes.
Since Taiwan began to hold direct presidential elections, the importance of legislators has declined, while that of city and county heads has risen. The importance of this election lies merely in the leaders' attempts to put their bands together.
Shih Cheng-feng is an associate professor in the department of public administration at Tamkang University.
Translated by Francis Huang
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