Both the pan-DPP camp and the pan-KMT camp have recently been plagued by serious infighting. These parties, which should have united to fight against their enemies, have instead pointed their guns at their own allies, leaving voters bewildered.
The multi-member district system under which Taiwan's legislative elections are conducted, easily causes more intense intraparty than interparty competition. As long as the electoral system remains unchanged, trying to promote intraparty unification or interparty cooperation during election campaigns will be, as the Chinese saying goes, trying to "catch a fish in a tree"(
In the four legislative elections of the past 12 years, the proportion of the vote won by the two major camps have remained broadly consistent. The division of the unification and independence camps on the political spectrum has been described as a "super-stable structure."
The pan-KMT camp, including the KMT and the New Party, (the People First Party not having been founded until last year) has always gotten between 53 percent and 59 percent of votes over the 12 year-period. Meanwhile, the pan-DPP camp, including the DPP, the Taiwan Independence Party and the New National Alliance, used to win between 27 percent and 33 percent of votes. The other 10-plus percent usually went to independent candidates.
The leaders of each party are well aware that since the scope for developing their voter base is very limited, the most convenient way to boost their percentage is to undermine the foundations of their own allies. In addition, with the People First Party and the Taiwan Solidarity Union taking part in year-end elections for the first time, it has become even more difficult to forecast the outcome of the election. Seeking to profit themselves at the expense of others or giving priority to protecting themselves has been the natural response of the parties.
Within a multi-member district system, however, the proportion of votes a party wins is not always equal to the proportion of legislative seats it stands to secure. The number of candidates nominated is actually the most vital factor determining how many seats a party will get. But faced with so many uncertainties, all parties are forced to field many more candidates than they should.
A tough fight is therefore inevitable in the year-end elections. Those local factions which have secured grassroots votes may end up benefiting from the two major camps' infighting and becoming the biggest winners in the legislative elections.
Wang Yeh-lih is a professor of political science at Tunghai University.
Translated by Jackie Lin
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