Taiwan has made a solid goodwill gesture to China with the opening of "small three links" between the mainland coast and the offshore islands of Kinmen and Matsu. If these small links can be implemented smoothly, the natural next step will be the much-hyped "big three links" or "three direct links" between China and Taiwan proper. During his meeting with American Institute in Taiwan Chairman Richard Bush yesterday, Premier Chang Chun-hsiung (
The results of the small three links may serve as a policy reference, but the scale and complexity of the three direct links far exceed those of the "small three links." The one-sided modus operandi applied to the "small three links" -- in which Taiwan unilaterally opened the links without any negotiations with China -- may not be applicable to the big three links.
The big three links contain too many factors of uncertainty, especially the impact on Taiwan's national security. The identification of Chinese civilian and military aircraft, for example, is one worrisome issue for the Taiwan government.
Bush said Taiwan can let the US know if the "big three links" stirs national security concerns.
As China continues to strengthen its satellite and missile capabilities and buy advanced military aircraft from Russia, Taiwan will have to rely on the US for defense if it does not have adequate self-defense capability. With the delicate cross-strait relations resting on a gross military imbalance, an indiscreet opening of transportation links will put additional pressure on Taiwan's already disadvantaged defense power.
US Secretary of Defense William Cohen seems to understand the risks posed by the military imbalance. He said Taiwan will naturally need more defensive weapons if China continues with its military deployment on the coast near Taiwan. "So, the beat will go on. The escalation will continue," Cohen said.
His logic is correct. Selling necessary military supplies to Taiwan is something the US can and should do to give Taiwan the confidence it needs to take more liberal measures regarding cross-strait exchanges.
When the small three links was launched last week, one of the ships lowered its ROC flag immediately after setting sail from Kinmen. The act was criticized as an insult to Taiwan's national integrity. How to define the links and what flags to fly will be the primary focus of debate on the future "big three links." Chinese Vice Premier Qian Qichen (
If the two sides cannot negotiate the definitions and technical problems concerning transportation links, then it is likely that only the trade and postal links will be launched within the WTO framework. Transportation links will then become a separate matter waiting for negotiation.
For Taiwan, the impact of the transportation links is complex and not necessarily beneficial. By setting the "one China" principle as a prerequisite, China has raised Taiwan's costs in opening the three links. This will certainly create more reluctance in Taiwan while the rest of the world shakes its head.
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