Several Taiwanese war planes, including F-16s and Indigenous Defense Fighters (IDFs), reportedly approached China's coast in mid-July, nearly clashing with a Chinese military aircraft. This underlines the potential for innocent conduct to create misunderstandings and tension between the armed forces on either side of the Strait.
In order to avoid this, it is crucial that the parties set up a mechanism for preventing military incidents.
Since the early 1990s, Taiwan and China have sought to modernize their defense capabilities, in particular their air and naval forces. While Taiwan has introduced IDFs, F-16s, and Mirage 2000s into its air force, China has purchased Su-27s and Su-30s from Russia.
As a result, advanced aircraft fighters equipped with high-performance air-to-air missiles patrol the air space over the Taiwan Strait.
Given that the two sides have not officially clarified "spheres of activity" for their jet fighters, the potential exists for one's routine training and navigation flights to be viewed by the other as provocative.
Any unexpected encounter between Taiwanese and Chinese military aircraft could lead to an escalation of tensions.
It should be noted that Chinese military commanders have emphasized the necessity of aggressive policies toward Taiwan. They may trigger incidents to incite tensions in the Strait in order to compel civilian leaders in Beijing to take further military action against Taiwan.
Under such circumstances, an undesirable crisis or war could break out in the Strait. (On August 13, defense ministry spokesman Kung Fan-ding
Among confidence-building measures (CBMs), those focusing on "tension-reduction" are designed to avoid military incidents. It is in Taiwan's and China's interests to consult on an early-warning system to prevent each other's fighters and warships from staying too close to the other's territories.
When any jet fighter or warship unexpectedly approaches the other's territory, its commander should be warned first by a polite code warning (on an officially agreed wave frequency).
The establishment of such a system should be accompanied by that of a channel to exchange urgent information, clarify intentions and take preparatory measures to prevent incidents from becoming crises.
It will thus be possible to avoid military incidents and to reduce the likelihood of an "accidental" armed clash between Taiwan and China.
Tsai Ming-Yen is a PhD candidate in the Department of War Studies, King's College, London.
Because much of what former US president Donald Trump says is unhinged and histrionic, it is tempting to dismiss all of it as bunk. Yet the potential future president has a populist knack for sounding alarums that resonate with the zeitgeist — for example, with growing anxiety about World War III and nuclear Armageddon. “We’re a failing nation,” Trump ranted during his US presidential debate against US Vice President Kamala Harris in one particularly meandering answer (the one that also recycled urban myths about immigrants eating cats). “And what, what’s going on here, you’re going to end up in World War
Earlier this month in Newsweek, President William Lai (賴清德) challenged the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to retake the territories lost to Russia in the 19th century rather than invade Taiwan. He stated: “If it is for the sake of territorial integrity, why doesn’t [the PRC] take back the lands occupied by Russia that were signed over in the treaty of Aigun?” This was a brilliant political move to finally state openly what many Chinese in both China and Taiwan have long been thinking about the lost territories in the Russian far east: The Russian far east should be “theirs.” Granted, Lai issued
On Tuesday, President William Lai (賴清德) met with a delegation from the Hoover Institution, a think tank based at Stanford University in California, to discuss strengthening US-Taiwan relations and enhancing peace and stability in the region. The delegation was led by James Ellis Jr, co-chair of the institution’s Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific Region project and former commander of the US Strategic Command. It also included former Australian minister for foreign affairs Marise Payne, influential US academics and other former policymakers. Think tank diplomacy is an important component of Taiwan’s efforts to maintain high-level dialogue with other nations with which it does
On Sept. 2, Elbridge Colby, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for strategy and force development, wrote an article for the Wall Street Journal called “The US and Taiwan Must Change Course” that defends his position that the US and Taiwan are not doing enough to deter the People’s Republic of China (PRC) from taking Taiwan. Colby is correct, of course: the US and Taiwan need to do a lot more or the PRC will invade Taiwan like Russia did against Ukraine. The US and Taiwan have failed to prepare properly to deter war. The blame must fall on politicians and policymakers