Recent events have placed the US at a crossroads in their foreign policy priorities toward the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific. US opposition to Israeli arms sales to China is creating tension in the US-Israel "special relationship." But backing off on the issue of Israeli sales could leave Taiwan's new government facing a more menacing Chinese threat. The administration faces a dilemma -- neither Taiwanese nor Israeli interests can be written off easily. How the Clinton Administration deals with this tension will have profound effects on our strategic interests in both regions.
Israel's decision to deliver advanced radar systems to China risks escalating cross-strait tensions and could renew the possibility of military action in the Taiwan Strait. On April 3rd, during his trip to Israel, Secretary of Defense William Cohen indicated the US "does not support the sale of this type of technology, because of the potential of changing the strategic balance in that region," especially, "with the tensions running as high as they are between China and Taiwan."
Cohen's statements are right on the money, but too little, too late. Israel will not renege on a finalized deal. The administration should realize this and focus instead on preventing this one-time deal from expanding into a long-term relationship. This particular sale won't change the China-Taiwan military balance anytime soon, but an agreement for the provision of more could have serious consequences.
A done deal
Israeli Aircraft Industries will soon deliver to China a Russian IL-76 transport plane equipped with the Phalcon early warning radar system, a system similar (and in some ways superior) to the airborne warning and control system (AWACS) the US has used since the 1970s. Although not a direct offensive threat in and of itself, widespread integration and use of this system by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) air and naval components would greatly enhance China's ability to project power across the Taiwan Strait.
Advanced aerial radar systems are a critical factor in combat at and over the sea -- such as in a battle over the Taiwan Strait. These systems allow the user to map the battlespace in real-time, pinpointing enemy positions and maneuvers, allowing the user to coordinate precise strikes on ships and aircraft.
China has made recent improvements in its capability to project power across the Strait. Russia recently delivered Sovremenny class destroyers. Chinese ship-to-ship cruise missiles are already among the most advanced in the world. The PLA Air Force has made vast improvements in its ability to operate at sea. Despite these improvements, China has remained unable to control the Taiwan Strait because it is not capable of managing and coordinating complex battle operations beyond the reach of its land-based radar installations. Receipt and integration of the Phalcon system would vastly improve China's aerial command and control capabilities.
Widespread integration of the Phalcon system into Chinese operations in the Strait is crucial -- one plane alone will not guarantee China's dominance of electronic warfare over the Strait. For China to retain 24-hour surveillance of the Strait for any length of time, at least four systems (planes) are required. While two could monitor the entire Strait for a short period of time, more systems are needed for deployment cycles and maintenance purposes. Israel announced to the Pentagon its intention to sell this equipment as early as four years ago, requesting certification that the deal would not include any proprietary US equipment.
Not too late for a solution
Last fall, US President Bill Clinton used a speech to admonish the Israelis for their plans to sell China this equipment. More recently, Israeli Deputy Defense Minister Ephraim Sneh complained that during a visit to the US all he heard about was "China, China, China." On April 3rd, just days before the president of China was set to arrive in Israel to personally inspect the plane, Secretary Cohen stood side by side with Barak and publicly declared the sale "counterproductive." Israel is more than aware of US opposition. But too much effort has been focused on attempting to quash the delivery of the first plane. Reneging on the deal now, after Jiang Zemin's (江澤民) historic visit to Israel, would doom Israel's access to the lucrative Chinese arms market and create a diplomatic nightmare. Israeli Aircraft Industries would see its exports drop off internationally as it gained the reputation as an "unreliable supplier." The Israeli political leadership would see its already strained credibility further tested as the public saw Israeli foreign policy decisions dictated by the US government.
These factors will prove intractable. The more the US pushes Israel to renege on its current deal, the more resistance we can expect. The Clinton administration has finally shown that it is willing to pressure Israel on this issue; it is now time to direct that effort more effectively. Both Israel and China have expressed interest in further purchases, tentatively proposing a deal for four more planes, worth nearly US$1billion. US efforts should now focus on preventing that agreement from blossoming into a long-term supplier relationship.
In its current form, Israel's deal, while unfortunate, is manageable. The Clinton administration's focus should now move toward preventing future transfers. Continuing to pressure Israel to renege on the current deal will only make them less receptive to efforts to prevent them from expanding their military relationship with China -- an outcome that the US and Taiwan would find most "counterproductive."
Christopher McIntosh is a research analyst in the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC.
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