President Chen Shui-bian's (
Since 1949, a series of dramatic transformations in world politics have generated both opportunities and challenges for Taipei. During the early months of 1950, it appeared that Taiwan would be overrun by the People's Republic of China (PRC). The US refused to assist the island in its efforts to repel Communist aggression. After the outbreak of the Korean conflict on June 25, 1950, however, the Truman administration reversed its position. Washington and Taipei signed a defense treaty in 1954 and massive amounts of US economic and military aid poured into Taiwan.
During the late 1960s, strategic considerations led US president Richard Nixon to seek a rapprochement with China and in 1971 the US quietly acquiesced to Taiwan's expulsion from the UN. In 1979, Washington cut its ties with Taipei to establish diplomatic relations with Beijing. These moves came as a devastating blow to Taiwan, but there was nothing that the Taiwanese government could do about it.
The end of the Cold War helped Taiwan strengthen its ties with the US. American arms sales escalated and Washington upgraded its "unofficial" relations with Taipei. At the same time, relations with Beijing deteriorated. China ultimately came to be viewed as a "strategic competitor" of the US.
The 9/11 attacks led to a dramatic shift in the US foreign policy paradigm. US military strategy shifted from the deterrence that characterized the Cold War and toward pre-emptive action against terrorists. The new paradigm has moved China off Washington's "enemies list." Gone are the descriptions of China as a "strategic competitor." US President George W. Bush now praises the PRC as "the most important country" in the region.
The war against terrorism (and the North Korean nuclear crisis) has helped push Washington closer to Beijing. This helps explain why some Bush administration officials have criticized Taiwan. In fact, the link between the war on terrorism and strains in US-Taiwan relations was made clear when former US Secretary of State Colin Powell praised the "the positive role" that China has played in the war on terror while expressing his opposition to Taiwan's independence during a press conference last October.
To be sure, US-Taiwan relations have experienced some bumps in recent years. But many of these problems must be traced to structural shifts in global politics that are beyond Taipei's control. And in fact, US economic, military and political ties with Taiwan remain robust.
The US is no longer Taiwan's largest export outlet, but America remains Taiwan's second largest market, and bilateral economic ties have grown closer as a result of joint-venture partnerships and technology transfers. Moreover, despite PRC pressures, the US has no plans to reduce its arms sales or security commitments to Taiwan and it steadfastly opposes schemes hatched by some greedy European governments to sell arms to China. Furthermore, US support for Taiwan's participation in global institutions -- especially the World Health Organization -- continues to increase.
Maintaining strong ties with Washington is only one of the many challenges that Taipei will confront during Chen's second administration. But these challenges should not be exaggerated. Nor should they be attributed solely to one politician or camp.
Working together, the Taiwanese people will overcome the challenges that lie ahead.
Dennis Hickey is professor of political science at Missouri State University.
Taiwan stands at the epicenter of a seismic shift that will determine the Indo-Pacific’s future security architecture. Whether deterrence prevails or collapses will reverberate far beyond the Taiwan Strait, fundamentally reshaping global power dynamics. The stakes could not be higher. Today, Taipei confronts an unprecedented convergence of threats from an increasingly muscular China that has intensified its multidimensional pressure campaign. Beijing’s strategy is comprehensive: military intimidation, diplomatic isolation, economic coercion, and sophisticated influence operations designed to fracture Taiwan’s democratic society from within. This challenge is magnified by Taiwan’s internal political divisions, which extend to fundamental questions about the island’s identity and future
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