From Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Lien Chan's (
However, from an international perspective, such doubts seem unrelated to recent cross-strait developments. There is a tendency to not only ignore favorable international developments, but also to exaggerate the influence some politicians have on international relations. More importantly, Taiwan's commitment to democracy and the results of its efforts are often ignored. In fact, recent events prove that greater democracy is the only path to secure the nation's independent sovereignty.
China's "Anti-Secession" Law has increased the tension between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, as well as the international pressure on China. Through US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Washington repeatedly stressed that its policy of maintaining the status quo in the Strait has remained unchanged, to remind Beijing not to cross the line while reaffirming the necessary US role in cross-strait relations. The EU also halted moves to lift its arms embargo on China at the last moment. With the German parliament's rejection of lifting the ban, Beijing's incessant lobbying of the EU failed in the face of its threat to cross-strait peace.
Meanwhile Japan is attempting to extend its international influence, and has actively lobbied the international community on its bid to become a permanent member of the UN Security Council and to amend Article 9 of its Constitution to build up its military. This has worsened relations between China and Japan.
The current international atmosphere and the growing visibility of cross-strait issues allow Taiwan greater leverage on the international stage and more room to maneuver.
With political pressure mounting on Beijing in Taiwan's favor, China has decided to employ "soft power" tactics in a bid to reap the greatest benefit at the least cost to themselves, by holding talks with Lien and People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong (
Lien's and Soong's trips cannot be considered political victories for the KMT and PFP, as their actions have pushed their parties further toward extremism and is reducing their stature. Local support for the KMT and PFP is being reduced to a narrow band of extreme opinion, leaving more moderate voters out in the cold. The KMT and PFP are tending more and more to favor speedy unification, further narrowing their support base.
Given Taiwan's de facto independence, the Beijing authorities know more clearly than anyone that they should be talking with Taiwan's ruling party, the DPP. Its meetings with opposition leaders are hardly likely to result in any changes to Taiwan's sovereignty. Inviting KMT or PFP members to visit is just part of a show, and has nothing to do with cross-strait negotiations. At most, it will just confuse public opinion.
As far as Taiwan as a whole is concerned, there are two crucial points to consider: First, how is Taiwan to strengthen its democracy? If Taiwanese society and DPP supporters are thrown off balance by Beijing's showmanship to deny the democracy that we have been seeking over the past half a century, then Beijing will be handed an unexpected victory.
Party heads should show their leadership, displaying the real spirit of democracy to the people, rather than being caught up in self-destructive ideological confrontation. Otherwise we risk retarding the development of our democracy.
Second, can Taiwan use its advantages in the international community to break through the deadlock of cross-strait talks while maintaining dignity and equality? We can take advantage of the US and Japan's recent joint announcement urging a solution to the Taiwan question through peaceful negotiations, and demand the opening up of formal peace talks across the Strait.
It might even be appropriate to ask the US and Japan to mediate in such talks, or even to ask other international non-governmental organizations (especially human rights or peace organizations) to play an observing or supervisory role during the negotiations.
During last year's presidential elections, Taiwan was on the receiving end of international pressure about the question of the legality of holding the referendums simultaneously with the elections. Now, with the drive to amend the Constitution, this is to become a fundamental right of the people, guaranteed by the law.
These changes all go to show that democracy and its procedures are the greatest guarantees we have of assuring our sovereignty and independence. While Beijing is trying to distort political realities with the introduction of the Anti-Secession Law, Taiwan should be putting current political realities into law, legally ensconcing democracy, strengthening the democratic process within the country and providing a visible legal basis for it.
Any advantage we might have in a future confrontation with China will be in terms of democracy and human rights, and not in terms of military clout.
Chen Chi-mai is the acting mayor of Kaohsiung.
TRANSLATED BY EDDY CHANG AND PAUL COOPER
In their recent op-ed “Trump Should Rein In Taiwan” in Foreign Policy magazine, Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim argued that the US should pressure President William Lai (賴清德) to “tone it down” to de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait — as if Taiwan’s words are more of a threat to peace than Beijing’s actions. It is an old argument dressed up in new concern: that Washington must rein in Taipei to avoid war. However, this narrative gets it backward. Taiwan is not the problem; China is. Calls for a so-called “grand bargain” with Beijing — where the US pressures Taiwan into concessions
The term “assassin’s mace” originates from Chinese folklore, describing a concealed weapon used by a weaker hero to defeat a stronger adversary with an unexpected strike. In more general military parlance, the concept refers to an asymmetric capability that targets a critical vulnerability of an adversary. China has found its modern equivalent of the assassin’s mace with its high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) weapons, which are nuclear warheads detonated at a high altitude, emitting intense electromagnetic radiation capable of disabling and destroying electronics. An assassin’s mace weapon possesses two essential characteristics: strategic surprise and the ability to neutralize a core dependency.
Chinese President and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Chairman Xi Jinping (習近平) said in a politburo speech late last month that his party must protect the “bottom line” to prevent systemic threats. The tone of his address was grave, revealing deep anxieties about China’s current state of affairs. Essentially, what he worries most about is systemic threats to China’s normal development as a country. The US-China trade war has turned white hot: China’s export orders have plummeted, Chinese firms and enterprises are shutting up shop, and local debt risks are mounting daily, causing China’s economy to flag externally and hemorrhage internally. China’s
US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) were born under the sign of Gemini. Geminis are known for their intelligence, creativity, adaptability and flexibility. It is unlikely, then, that the trade conflict between the US and China would escalate into a catastrophic collision. It is more probable that both sides would seek a way to de-escalate, paving the way for a Trump-Xi summit that allows the global economy some breathing room. Practically speaking, China and the US have vulnerabilities, and a prolonged trade war would be damaging for both. In the US, the electoral system means that public opinion
RSS