At a time when Taipei is thinking over its international strategy in response to Beijing's proposal of an anti-secession law (反分裂國家法) last month, several local academics and experts have predicted that China will make concessions on direct cross-strait charter flights for the Lunar New Year holiday -- as this would constitute just a single, insignificant case.
In doing so, China will be able to affect Taiwan's international strategy: just as Taipei is firing back at the proposed legislation, it will be accepting a symbolic reconciliation between the two sides when Chinese charter flights arrive in Taiwan.
Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) took the initiative by first making a statement on May 17 on the anti-secession law, and he is no longer responding passively to Taiwan's moves. Meanwhile, he is playing a soft tune on non-political issues to attract the support of the Taiwanese people and the international community.
When Koo Chen-fu (辜振甫), the late chairman of the Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF), fell seriously ill last year, Taipei wished to invite the chairman of China's Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait (ARATS), Wang Daohan (汪道涵), to visit him. Beijing thinks highly of Koo, and clearly knows that another Koo-Wang meeting could have reduced tensions across the Strait. But Beijing repeatedly refused Taipei's invitation, due to its rigid political stance.
The condolence message Wang sent after Koo's death is a reflection of their personal friendship. But it also shows that, if the necessary moral courage is absent, one will be destined to yield to Beijing's strategic arrangement.
China's creation of the anti-secession law shows that Hu wants to take the initiative to restrain Taiwan from a plan to create a new constitution through a referendum next year. China has been preparing the legislation for a long while, but claims that the proposed law is passive and defensive. China is obviously trying to prevent not only formal Taiwan independence, but also US interference.
After hurting the feelings of the Taiwanese people with this strategic arrangement, a ray of hope over charter flights has appeared. Unfortunately, Beijing's political maneuvering can be seen behind its goodwill.
According to a poll on the anti-secession law taken by the pro-independence Taiwan Thinktank on Dec. 31, more than half of those questioned think that the law may restrict their expression of opinion on unification and independence, block the resumption of cross-strait talks and even increase tension across the Strait. About 70 percent of the respondents think that Taiwan's international space will be further oppressed.
About 80 percent of respondents objected to the legislation, while as many as 88 percent thought that Taiwan's political parties should give up their power struggles in the face of the legislation. Perhaps it is beyond Beijing's imagination that the law might promote unity among Taiwan's major parties.
Although Taipei wants to strike back, it is under pressure from Washington. But if no action is taken, this will be interpreted as tacit recognition of Beijing's action.
Taipei has purposely defined Beijing's move as an attempt to unilaterally change the status quo. US President George W. Bush's government did not criticize Beijing for the proposed law, unlike its response to Taipei's holding of a so-called defensive referendum last year.
Ironically, Taipei now has to swallow the insult, accept the delayed charter flight plan designed by Beijing and study the proposed two-way direct flights between Taiwan and Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. Although Taipei is relatively passive at present, it should at least express its opinion on the planning of destinations for the flights. That would be fair play.
The cross-strait situations seems hopeless and depressing at times. But it is full of all kinds of possibilities and turning points. Real peace is surely impossible. But it is not easy for a war to break out either. Both sides have to seize this opportunity and make every effort to boost the economy. Besides, at least Taiwan, China and the US do have something in common: avoiding the use of force in the Strait.
After the Lunar New Year charter flights, and to mark the 10th anniversary of former Chinese president Jiang Zemin's (江澤民) "eight points" on the Taiwan issue, Hu may call on the two sides to jointly build a framework for cross-strait peace and stability.
Despite a few methods proposed to improve cross-strait relations (such as negotiation mechanisms and convenient charter flights for passengers and cargo), there is still a very long way to go reach true reconciliation. The charter flights give only minor relief in a situation of major tension. Although they will have no significant impact on the overall framework, we hope that such tiny drips can in the end break this stone.
At a time when China is using the dual tactics of tightening its stance on major issues while loosening it on minor ones, Taiwan is planning to establish a committee for cross-strait peace and development. Since the Taiwanese people are tired of inter-party struggles, the government should unite with the opposition and social elite to seek reconciliation, and give full play to professionalism. This is also how we can pay our supreme respects to Koo, who was the real advocate of the committee.
Lin Cheng-yi is the director of the Institute of European and American Studies at the Academia Sinica.
TRANSLATED BY EDDY CHANG
From the Iran war and nuclear weapons to tariffs and artificial intelligence, the agenda for this week’s Beijing summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) is packed. Xi would almost certainly bring up Taiwan, if only to demonstrate his inflexibility on the matter. However, no one needs to meet with Xi face-to-face to understand his stance. A visit to the National Museum of China in Beijing — in particular, the “Road to Rejuvenation” exhibition, which chronicles the rise and rule of the Chinese Communist Party — might be even more revealing. Xi took the members
A Pale View of Hills, a movie released last year, follows the story of a Japanese woman from Nagasaki who moved to Britain in the 1950s with her British husband and daughter from a previous marriage. The daughter was born at a time when memories of the US atomic bombing of Nagasaki during World War II and anxiety over the effects of nuclear radiation still haunted the community. It is a reflection on the legacy of the local and national trauma of the bombing that ended the period of Japanese militarism. A central theme of the movie is the need, at
The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) on Friday used their legislative majority to push their version of a special defense budget bill to fund the purchase of US military equipment, with the combined spending capped at NT$780 billion (US$24.78 billion). The bill, which fell short of the Executive Yuan’s NT$1.25 trillion request, was passed by a 59-0 margin with 48 abstentions in the 113-seat legislature. KMT Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun (鄭麗文), who reportedly met with TPP Chairman Huang Kuo-chang (黃國昌) for a private meeting before holding a joint post-vote news conference, was said to have mobilized her
Before the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and its People’s Liberation Army (PLA) can blockade, invade, and destroy the democracy on Taiwan, the CCP seeks to make the world an accomplice to Taiwan’s subjugation by harassing any government that confers any degree of marginal recognition, or defies the CCP’s “One China Principle” diktat that there is no free nation of Taiwan. For United States President Donald Trump’s upcoming May 14, 2026 visit to China, the CCP’s top wish has nothing to do with Trump’s ongoing dismantling of the CCP’s Axis of Evil. The CCP’s first demand is for Trump to cease US
RSS