In this, the granddaddy of all year-end fearless forecasts, you are invited to weigh intriguing possibilities in a dozen fields. For each, pick one, all or none, and don't play it safe; one correct wild guess gives you bragging rights forever.
1. The Oscar for Best Picture goes to: (a) Robert Zemeckis' The Polar Express; (b) Michael Mann's Collateral; (c) David Mamet's Spartan; (d) Clint Eastwood's Million Dollar Baby (to win this choice, a trifecta is needed with Best Director and Best Actor as well); (e) Michael Moore's Fahrenheit 9/11 (from Academy members seeking vengeance).
2. Political scandals will include: (a) Senator Pat Roberts's cover-up of Senate Intelligence ineptitude in its suppressed USS Cole report; (b) association of a Kofi Annan family member with the selection of a UN oil-for-food official; (c) FBI Director Robert Mueller's two-year campaign of entrapment and harassment of the leading US pro-Israel group; (d) pan-Arabist leaders' conspiracy of silence in the genocide of African Muslims in Darfur.
3. The national intelligence director will be: (a) the Pentagon's Paul Wolfowitz; (b) CIA chief Porter Goss; (c) retired General Tommy Franks; (d) 9/11 interrogator Richard "Is it not a fact" Ben-Veniste; (e) ex-Democratic Senator Chuck Robb.
4. Iraqis will see the: (a) election of Ayad Allawi and progress on the bumpy road to democracy; (b) comeback of Ahmad Chalabi dreaded by the CIA; (c) insurgency's sudden collapse with the capture of bin Laden and killing of Zarqawi; (d) beginning of the US troop drawdown; (e) judgment of not guilty in Saddam's trial; (f) bloody Shiite-Sunni civil war and Kurdish independence.
5. The sleeper nonfiction best seller will be: (a) The Tender Bar by J.P. Moehringer; (b) Becoming Justice Blackmun by Linda Greenhouse; (c) Robert O'Harrow Jr.'s No Place to Hide; (d) Arch Puddington's biography of Lane Kirkland, Champion of American Labor; (e) The Ethical Brain by Michael Gazzaniga; (f) Speaking Freely by the press defender Floyd Abrams; (g) Smashed by Koren Zailckas.
6. The novel surprise will be: (a) Nick Arvin's Articles of War; (b) Elizabeth Gaffney's Metropolis; (c) Bret Easton Ellis's Lunar Park; (d) Julie Baumgold's The Diamond (dictated by Napoleon).
7. Senate Democrats will: (a) not dig in their heels over elevating Antonin Scalia to chief justice if Bush appoints a centrist as a new associate justice; (b) by filibustering all strongly conservative nominees, bring on the GOP "nuclear option" of changing Senate rules to require only a simple majority for confirmation; (c) drop the abortion litmus test but otherwise fight all right-wing judges.
8. The Scalia court will decide: (a) to strike down federal sentencing guidelines, producing tumult in criminal justice; (b) to uphold governmental Ten Commandments displays as harmless "ceremonial deism;" (c) to strike a blow for the free flow of booze by ruling that states cannot prevent the shipment of wines produced in one state to consumers in another state.
9. Republicans in Congress will remind President Bush of his lame-duckiness by defeating his proposal for: (a) personal retirement accounts within Social Security; (b) registering illegal immigrants; (c) making his tax cuts permanent; (d) a ticket to Mars.
10. Democrats will reverse their electoral fortunes by: (a) moving right by insisting on budget reduction; (b) moving left by advocating more social spending and higher taxes; (c) staying centered globally as muscular alliance-builders; (d) moving upward by getting religion; (e) moving down South and out Midwest for national candidates.
11. The economy will: (a) boom without inflation as oil sinks to US$30 per barrel, the Iraq war winds down and the Sharon-Abbas peace deal takes shape; (b) tank as Asia stops lending us money; (c) march up to a 13,000 Dow, as somewhat prematurely predicted in this office pool last year.
12. The medical breakthrough will be: (a) a modified vaccine to treat Alzheimer's; (b) a drug to aid recovery from brain injuries like strokes; (c) a stem-cell (not necessarily embryonic) treatment for heart diseases; (d) nanotechnologies to detect cancer cells early; (e) sequencing the human influenza genome to help prevent epidemics of new strains of Asian flu; (f) a drug that both slows prostate cancer and treats male baldness (a real challenge to ad copywriters).
My picks: 1 (d); 2 (all); 3 (c); 4 (a); 5 (b); 6 (d); 7 (a); 8 (all); 9 (b); 10 (d); 11 (a); 12 (all).
Two sets of economic data released last week by the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) have drawn mixed reactions from the public: One on the nation’s economic performance in the first quarter of the year and the other on Taiwan’s household wealth distribution in 2021. GDP growth for the first quarter was faster than expected, at 6.51 percent year-on-year, an acceleration from the previous quarter’s 4.93 percent and higher than the agency’s February estimate of 5.92 percent. It was also the highest growth since the second quarter of 2021, when the economy expanded 8.07 percent, DGBAS data showed. The growth
In the intricate ballet of geopolitics, names signify more than mere identification: They embody history, culture and sovereignty. The recent decision by China to refer to Arunachal Pradesh as “Tsang Nan” or South Tibet, and to rename Tibet as “Xizang,” is a strategic move that extends beyond cartography into the realm of diplomatic signaling. This op-ed explores the implications of these actions and India’s potential response. Names are potent symbols in international relations, encapsulating the essence of a nation’s stance on territorial disputes. China’s choice to rename regions within Indian territory is not merely a linguistic exercise, but a symbolic assertion
More than seven months into the armed conflict in Gaza, the International Court of Justice ordered Israel to take “immediate and effective measures” to protect Palestinians in Gaza from the risk of genocide following a case brought by South Africa regarding Israel’s breaches of the 1948 Genocide Convention. The international community, including Amnesty International, called for an immediate ceasefire by all parties to prevent further loss of civilian lives and to ensure access to life-saving aid. Several protests have been organized around the world, including at the University of California Los Angeles (UCLA) and many other universities in the US.
Every day since Oct. 7 last year, the world has watched an unprecedented wave of violence rain down on Israel and the occupied Palestinian Territories — more than 200 days of constant suffering and death in Gaza with just a seven-day pause. Many of us in the American expatriate community in Taiwan have been watching this tragedy unfold in horror. We know we are implicated with every US-made “dumb” bomb dropped on a civilian target and by the diplomatic cover our government gives to the Israeli government, which has only gotten more extreme with such impunity. Meantime, multicultural coalitions of US