Amid a flurry of increasingly strident warnings from China over the fate of Taiwan, the commander of US military forces in Asia and the Pacific has quietly cautioned the Chinese not to miscalculate American capabilities and intentions.
During a visit to Beijing, Admiral Thomas Fargo told Chinese political and military leaders that US Pacific sea and air forces maintain a high state of readiness, in contrast to the drain on ground troops from deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan. Soldiers and Marines from the West Coast, Hawaii, South Korea and Okinawa are either already stationed in Asia or on the way.
The admiral, according to US officials, repeated President W. George Bush's admonition that the US expects neither China nor Taiwan to change the status quo either by force or unilaterally. In private but not in public, Fargo told the Chinese his command was prepared to use armed force to help defend Taiwan if the president so ordered.
In the last few months, Chinese leaders have repeatedly warned that they would launch an attack on Taiwan if President Chen Shui-bian (
Knowledgeable American officials said Chen has no intention of declaring independence. He realizes it would trigger a Chinese assault that could devastate Taiwan. Polls in Taiwan show that a solid majority prefers the status quo. And Chen has accepted cautions from Washington that he not push across a "red line" that would cause war.
Amid this tension, Bush administration officials have not countered the Chinese in public, evidently because they are so preoccupied with Iraq.
The immediate cause for Chinese belligerence is negotiations between Washington and Taipei over US$18 billion worth of advanced weapons and diesel-electric submarines for use in the 190km-wide Taiwan Strait.
Bush has approved the sale but Taiwan's legislature has yet to appropriate funds and has been haggling over costs. US officials warn privately that Taiwan must do more to help itself if it is to retain American support and should not leave its defense to the US.
Beijing's protests escalated last week when President Hu Jintao (
Earlier last month, Bush's national security adviser, Condoleeza Rice, got the same message when she visited Beijing. Fargo heard similar lectures.
In addition, the government-controlled Chinese press has said that the Taiwan Relations Act under which the arms sales will be made was a "ridiculous law" that allows the US to interfere with China's internal affairs.
In hostilities over Taiwan, the brunt of US engagement would be borne by air and sea power, some based on Guam. Fargo pointedly stopped there on his way to China. Air power would be projected by Navy carriers, of which six are in the Pacific fleet, and from Guam and possibly the Japanese island of Okinawa.
The US frequently flies B-1 and B-52 bombers to Guam from the US and, in a change from its previous secrecy, makes sure the Chinese and the world know. In addition, Fargo has asked for another carrier to be shifted to the Pacific.
At sea, the US has moved two nuclear-powered attack submarines to Guam from Hawaii to put them closer to areas of possible operation. A third submarine is due to the assigned there shortly.
Richard Halloran is a writer based in Honolulu.
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