The results of the March 20 presidential election have not only reshaped Taiwan's domestic politics but have also created a window of opportunity for China's leaders to readjust their strategy toward President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) administration.
Noting that international concerns center on whether or not Chen's victory will have an instant effect on the stalemated cross-strait situation, Chen provided an immediate answer to the world community by saying that his re-election would result in a continued effort by his administration to pursue peaceful interactions with Beijing.
In addition to reiterating that his plan to change the Constitution in 2006 will have no bearing on the cross-strait status quo, Chen called for the US to play a constructive role as mediator and urge Beijing to restart talks with Taipei.
Beijing played down Chen's victory and took advantage of the post-election political turmoil in Taipei to claim that there might be a need for Beijing to "step in." Beijing also poured cold water on Chen's victory by stealing one of Taiwan's diplomatic allies, Dominica. Beijing's initial reaction displayed no respect for the democratically elected Chen.
The question is: Can Beijing maintain for another four years its policy of having no contact with the Chen administration?
China must at least recognize two factors when it comes to the question of how to deal with Chen.
The first factor is the rise of Taiwanese consciousness.
The fact that Chen was able to increase his voter support from 39.3 percent in 2000 to 50.1 percent this year -- and that he increased his vote total by nearly 1.5 million votes -- should not be overlooked by Beijing. Most people tend to attribute the growth of Chen's support to the rise of Taiwanese consciousness.
With a new mandate and over 7 million referendum votes cast in support of peaceful interaction with Beijing, Chen ac-quired enough legitimacy to generate domestic consensus on cross-strait policy. Under these circumstances, Beijing will have no choice but to face political reality and open the door to Chen.
The new generation of Chinese leadership, led by technocrats such as President Hu Jintao (
The second factor that Beijing must keep in mind involves the extent to which events in Hong Kong could generate pressure on the Chinese leadership. The experiment of the "one country, two systems" approach in Hong Kong has produced nothing but added restrictions on Hong Kongers' political freedom. In addition, Hong Kong's economy has deteriorated.
Beijing's recent attempts to dictate policy on political reforms in Hong Kong -- which include a proposal to directly elect the head of the territory by 2007 -- have widely been perceived as a "preventive means" of countering Taiwan's democratic progress. The question is: Can the emerging democratic forces in the territory be oppressed forever?
The cross-strait relationship has entered a new phase that will entail searching for common ground. China's strategy of siding with Taiwan's opposition and undermining Chen's power in the past four years has proved to be a total failure. China must adjust its approach toward the Chen administration. In short,China must live with Chen.
Chen's pledge to maintain the status quo and push for the establishment of a peaceful framework for cross-strait interaction should be treated seriously by Beijing. A window of opportunity for cross-strait reconciliation has opened. Both sides should take advantage of it.
Liu Kuan-teh is a political commentator based in Taipei.
The conflict in the Middle East has been disrupting financial markets, raising concerns about rising inflationary pressures and global economic growth. One market that some investors are particularly worried about has not been heavily covered in the news: the private credit market. Even before the joint US-Israeli attacks on Iran on Feb. 28, global capital markets had faced growing structural pressure — the deteriorating funding conditions in the private credit market. The private credit market is where companies borrow funds directly from nonbank financial institutions such as asset management companies, insurance companies and private lending platforms. Its popularity has risen since
The Donald Trump administration’s approach to China broadly, and to cross-Strait relations in particular, remains a conundrum. The 2025 US National Security Strategy prioritized the defense of Taiwan in a way that surprised some observers of the Trump administration: “Deterring a conflict over Taiwan, ideally by preserving military overmatch, is a priority.” Two months later, Taiwan went entirely unmentioned in the US National Defense Strategy, as did military overmatch vis-a-vis China, giving renewed cause for concern. How to interpret these varying statements remains an open question. In both documents, the Indo-Pacific is listed as a second priority behind homeland defense and
In an op-ed published in Foreign Affairs on Tuesday, Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun (鄭麗文) said that Taiwan should not have to choose between aligning with Beijing or Washington, and advocated for cooperation with Beijing under the so-called “1992 consensus” as a form of “strategic ambiguity.” However, Cheng has either misunderstood the geopolitical reality and chosen appeasement, or is trying to fool an international audience with her doublespeak; nonetheless, it risks sending the wrong message to Taiwan’s democratic allies and partners. Cheng stressed that “Taiwan does not have to choose,” as while Beijing and Washington compete, Taiwan is strongest when
US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng (何立峰) are expected to meet this month in Paris to prepare for a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平). According to media reports, the two sides would discuss issues such as the potential purchase of Boeing aircraft by China, increasing imports of US soybeans and the latest impacts of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. However, recent US military action against Iran has added uncertainty to the Trump-Xi summit. Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi (王毅) called the joint US-Israeli airstrikes and the
RSS