The re-election of President Chen Shui-bian (
This is irritating to Beijing not only because Chen will stay in power for the next four years, but also because Chinese diplomatic efforts toward on the US had little effect. In an attempt to hinder Chen's re-election, Beijing tried to pressure the US into criticizing Chen before the election. After the election, Beijing even hoped the US would declare Chen's re-election invalid and refrain from issuing congratulations. However, in Beijing's eyes, Washington does not abide by its promises and fails to dance to Beijing's tune. Currently, China is still pressuring the US not to send representatives to Chen's and Lu's inauguration ceremony.
A few days ago, the planned US sale of an advanced radar system to Taiwan also provoked protests from an embarrassed Beijing. Many Chinese military experts interpret this sale as a sign of military alliance between the US and Taiwan, and say that this sends the wrong signal to Taiwan independence elements.
Besides, Beijing also knows that it no longer has the option of resorting to force against Taiwan. Washington has warned Beijing several times that it will not sit idly by if China uses force to change the status quo. Furthermore, many high-ranking Chinese officials deem the use of force against Taiwan inappropriate, saying it would lead to an intense confrontation with the US, or even a military clash.
According to American experts, China's military is content with Chen's re-election because it gives them a pretext to ask for more military funding and to prepare for war, as the Chen administration will continue to inch toward Taiwanese independence. Cross-strait relations will remain in a standoff due to the Beijing leaders' rigidity and inability to abandon the "one China" principle.
On March 26, China's Taiwan Affairs Office strongly opposed the announcement of Chen and Lu's re-election and brashly meddled in our domestic affairs. China even threatened that it would take action if the post-election situation in Taiwan were to get out of control, a clear gesture of refusal to deal with the Chen administration. With Chen's re-election and his fresh mandate of more than half of the votes cast, it becomes ever less likely that Chen will agree to the "one China" principle, diminishing Taiwan into becoming a second Hong Kong.
Chen has said many times that he is willing to open talks with China about direct flights on the basis of a maintained status quo, as part of the effort to establish a peaceful and stable framework for negotiations. But Beijing keeps stressing the "one China" principle as a prerequisite, thus blocking meaningful dialogue.
The rigid and unrealistic mentality of China's leaders has sparked criticism from the US and raised doubts inside the country. Some Chinese consider the policy on Taiwan a complete failure that must be rectified. Shanghai think-tank analyst Zhang Nianchi (
US Vice President Dick Cheney is visiting Beijing and Shanghai this week. Initially scheduled for last spring, the visit was postponed due to the SARS outbreak. Cheney's visit is also to return the courtesy of President Hu Jintao (
Beijing's wishful thinking will be in vain, as Cheney is an expert on military and diplomatic problems. The outspoken Cheney is more likely to candidly suggest several Chinese policy changes. First, the US hopes that China will put more effort into fighting terrorism and dealing with the North Korea nuclear issue. Second, China should be a responsible leading power, rather than threatening Taiwan with its military might and undermining security and peace in East Asia. Third, China should initiate dialogue with Taiwan -- unconditionally.
On March 9, the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars held a seminar titled "One Tail Wags Two Dogs" in Washington. Norman Fu (
The Americans' misunderstandings and distortions underline the need for the government to strengthen its diplomacy and publicity. Both the US and China are leading powers, and both attempt to manipulate Taiwan. Both strive to reduce the space for Taiwan's self-determination. In this light, it is not hard to understand why Washington and Beijing objected to former president Lee Teng-hui's (
During the presidential election, the international community witnessed a surge in Taiwanese self-awareness and Taiwanese nationalism. This is an opportunity for Taiwan to strengthen its diplomatic ties with the international community. In the face of two powerful nations, the US and China, Taiwan should learn how to outwit bigger countries if it does not want to wag its tail and beg like a dog.
In the triangular relationship between the US, China and Taiwan, sometimes an inch may prove to be a long distance. The challenge to Taiwan decision-makers is how to use popular support to win more independence and international space, and how to engage in diplomatic negotiations with big countries.
Parris Chang is a Democratic Progressive Party legislator.
Tranlated by Wang Hsiao-wen
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