In the aftermath of the terror attacks in Madrid, it seemed that the election of Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero and his Socialist Party would have its greatest effect in foreign policy -- the possible withdrawal of Spanish troops from Iraq and the repair of damaged relations with France and Germany. But the realization is dawning that the greatest effects may ultimately be felt in Spain itself.
Zapatero, it seems, thinks that his country should have a sexual and social revolution.
The 43-year-old lawyer wants to legalize some form of gay marriage, rid public schools and medical research of Roman Catholic dogma, create nonpartisan state television and enact laws eradicating sexism in Spanish society.
ILLUSTRATION: MOUNTAIN PEOPLE
These are not just idle campaign promises. In a speech to Socialist leaders on March 26, he said: "The time has come for extreme respect for the sexual opinions of every individual, a time for a secular vision."
His administration, he added, will mark "the beginning of complete equality of the sexes, of the unceasing fight against criminal machismo."
Zapatero wants nothing less than a brave, new Spain, one that he said in the speech will be "modern, cultured, tolerant."
Already modern
At first, this sounds strange. As the world's eighth-largest economy, and growing faster than most others in the EU, Spain is certainly modern. And of all the countries in Europe, Spain is already among the most cultured, tolerant and socially liberal. This is, after all, the country that produced the anything-goes filmmaker Pedro Almodovar.
One of the most enduring features of the post-Franco era has been the celebration and protection of individual choice and freedom of expression, even when it clashes with traditional Catholic doctrine.
That may explain why prostitution (but not pimping) is legal, and the classified ads for the services so explicit in both liberal and conservative newspapers. Or why Barcelona is one of Europe's leaders in the pornography industry, with Private Media Group, a leading adult entertainment company, trading on the NASDAQ. Every year the city plays host to an erotic film festival.
Spain's gay community is vibrant, flamboyant and politically active. Drug use by individuals in the privacy of their homes is tolerated.
Spaniards of all political colorations scoff at the puritan streak in American politics that made the Monica Lewinsky affair such a big deal.
So why the need for radical change?
Most immediately, Zapatero wants to purge the country of the residue of conservatism that marked Aznar's eight-year administration. Although 94 percent of Spaniards are Catholics, a recent survey indicated that only 12 percent of young people between the ages of 13 and 24 go to Mass every week, and most Spaniards favor the strict separation of church and state.
Legal U-turn
Some changes will be easier than others. Last year, Spain passed a highly unpopular law that would make religious instruction a required part of the curriculum in public schools. Under the Zapatero administration, the law will not go into effect.
As for gay marriage, some form of civil union is already in force in most of Spain's 17 autonomous regions, but there is no countrywide protection under the law. Zapatero pledged in a television interview after the election to introduce legislation to put gay unions "on the same footing as marriage," even if he waffled a bit, adding that "Marriage is perhaps not the best word."
It helps that 68 percent of Spaniards favor gay marriage according to a Gallup poll last year (compared with 58 percent in France and 47 percent in Italy). But on the more delicate and contentious issue of adoptions by gay couples, Zapatero has promised only to find "broad consensus."
Abortion is illegal except in cases of rape, a deformed fetus or the endangering of the woman's mental or physical health. Although clinics routinely employ psychologists who attest to the mental fragility of the patients, there were efforts under the Aznar administration to prosecute doctors for flouting the law. The Socialist Party electoral platform includes a proposal to change the abortion law to allow women to terminate their pregnancies in the first 12 weeks for any reason.
On another level, Zapatero wants to spread Spain's wealth around. For example, he has announced the creation of a Ministry of Housing to provide more low and middle income housing for young people and new immigrants.
This undertaking coincides with an economic boom not seen in Spain since the discovery of the Americas, and ridiculously low mortgage rates that have helped produce one of the highest home ownership rates in Europe.
Respect for women
But Zapatero's most sweeping vision in domestic policy by far is to transform the role of women.
Spain is still a country of gender inequality -- in the family, in the workplace and in the public imagination. During his campaign, Zapatero stressed the fact that Spanish women earn 25 percent less than men do for the same work, that Spain has one of the highest female unemployment rates in Europe and that only 10 percent of its business executives are women. He said that each year there are 50,000 reports of spousal abuse and that 500 women died as "victims of gender violence" in the past eight years.
His government, he has said, will make women respected in Spain, guarantee equality between men and women, force men to contribute more to family duties and even "eradicate machismo." Education, he added, is the key to changing attitudes.
But it will not be easy to alter the fact that women in 84 percent of Spanish households always or usually do the laundry, or that in 73 percent of the households they always or usually prepare the next day's meals, according to a 2002 survey by Spain's Center for Sociological Research. And what about help-wanted ads that routinely specify that only attractive women under the age of 35 need apply? Or that divorce laws still favor men?
Asked in an interview in El Pais last month whether the sheer scope of his domestic and foreign policy agenda makes him dizzy, Zapatero replied: "I have the advantage that I usually sleep well." A political cartoon published since his election showed him sitting up in bed next to his wife, Sonsoles Espinosa, reading a book on how to become a leader in three days.
In their recent op-ed “Trump Should Rein In Taiwan” in Foreign Policy magazine, Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim argued that the US should pressure President William Lai (賴清德) to “tone it down” to de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait — as if Taiwan’s words are more of a threat to peace than Beijing’s actions. It is an old argument dressed up in new concern: that Washington must rein in Taipei to avoid war. However, this narrative gets it backward. Taiwan is not the problem; China is. Calls for a so-called “grand bargain” with Beijing — where the US pressures Taiwan into concessions
The term “assassin’s mace” originates from Chinese folklore, describing a concealed weapon used by a weaker hero to defeat a stronger adversary with an unexpected strike. In more general military parlance, the concept refers to an asymmetric capability that targets a critical vulnerability of an adversary. China has found its modern equivalent of the assassin’s mace with its high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) weapons, which are nuclear warheads detonated at a high altitude, emitting intense electromagnetic radiation capable of disabling and destroying electronics. An assassin’s mace weapon possesses two essential characteristics: strategic surprise and the ability to neutralize a core dependency.
Chinese President and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Chairman Xi Jinping (習近平) said in a politburo speech late last month that his party must protect the “bottom line” to prevent systemic threats. The tone of his address was grave, revealing deep anxieties about China’s current state of affairs. Essentially, what he worries most about is systemic threats to China’s normal development as a country. The US-China trade war has turned white hot: China’s export orders have plummeted, Chinese firms and enterprises are shutting up shop, and local debt risks are mounting daily, causing China’s economy to flag externally and hemorrhage internally. China’s
US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) were born under the sign of Gemini. Geminis are known for their intelligence, creativity, adaptability and flexibility. It is unlikely, then, that the trade conflict between the US and China would escalate into a catastrophic collision. It is more probable that both sides would seek a way to de-escalate, paving the way for a Trump-Xi summit that allows the global economy some breathing room. Practically speaking, China and the US have vulnerabilities, and a prolonged trade war would be damaging for both. In the US, the electoral system means that public opinion