Though the primaries have not been completed, it is becoming increasingly likely that the candidates for the presidential election in the US this coming November will be President George W. Bush and Senator John Kerry. The two political parties will soon begin putting together their respective platforms, with the primary focus on domestic issues (taxes, employment, homeland security, social welfare), but close behind will be Iraq and the problematic state of US international relationships.
Cross-strait issues, as in the past, will likely be included, but well buried in the debate about international relations. By the time US elections take place, Taiwan's attention will be on the Legislative Yuan elections in December.
On the Democratic side, most of the candidates in the primaries have voiced strong support for Taiwan. The leading contender on the Democratic side, however, when responding to a question, said that he was a strong supporter of the "one China" policy, and that Taiwan should consider the "one country, two systems" offer.
That view is not likely to make it to the Democratic platform, however. Few of his senatorial comrades are familiar with details of the cross-strait issues, but it was not encouraging to hear a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee suggest the people of Taiwan should "use the framework of one country, two systems" to solve cross-strait problems. One has to hope his advisers will eventually bring his knowledge about Taiwan closer to reality.
On the Republican side, Bush has made a strong case for the high priority the US must have in expanding and strengthening democracy around the world. He gets full support for this from Congress and the American public. On this point, Taiwan's security shield, after the military and the weapons they can procure, is democracy. With the changing national priorities that resulted from Taiwan's democratization, however, military hardware is more difficult to acquire and democracy continues to be challenged by China.
To add to the complexity of America's cross-strait policies is the growing need for the US to work more closely with China on specific issues such as North Korea. So far, the US has maintained a balanced approach to the two sides in the always sensitive cross-strait issue. By doing so, the Bush administration also maintains the support of the American voters on this subject. But the mixture of interests that America has will make the wording used on cross-strait policies in both political platforms a goldmine (or a minefield) of interesting rhetoric.
As the many experts on China and Taiwan in the US prepare papers or briefings for candidates and party positions for the next elections, many of the positions emanating from Taiwan and China will influence what the experts write. For Taiwan, most of what they hear or read may come from the views of academics and officials, but the most influential will likely be the Taiwan media. What these same people hear or read from China will be the organized and narrow view from the government-controlled media and officials. That is an advantage for China.
The formal public debate in Taipei by the two candidates for the presidency, on the other hand, is an advantage for Taiwan. It is not what was said, so much as simply having an open, orderly and fairly run debate by respected individuals and organizations. It established a precedent that is good for the people of Taiwan while also assuring people abroad that democracy is deeply embedded.
Also, the referendum and discussion about constitutional change can demonstrate the depth and maturity of the democracy that has been achieved. The process of doing this without raising tensions while accomplishing an objective is not new for Taiwan. Localization of top official positions in government, acceptance of election results, direct elections, downsizing the government -- all have been accomplished gradually and peacefully, although not always without anxiety in Washington and opposition in Beijing.
This same strategy of gradually making needed changes to keep pace with realities will come to be accepted as not being provocative or changing the cross-strait status quo. It may have been helpful when the long-standing objective of using referendums as a means of change arose, and at the same time provide a universally recognized right for people to more directly play a role in governance.
China had succeeded in convincing China experts abroad that referendums for Taiwan were intolerable. Since this issue was not previously an active problem, the fact that holding a referendum is a basic human right employed by democracies worldwide simply was not considered. In fact, "democracy," from its Greek origins, connotes individual voting on each issue. We now call it a referendum.
For the most part, on the referendum issue, reason has prevailed, and though some anxiety persists, increasingly it is accepted that a wisely considered use of referendums does not change relationships between the US, Taiwan and China, nor threaten a unilateral change of status that could result in bloodshed.
This does not do much for insisting on "maintaining the status quo," except perhaps to encourage a change in nomenclature. This is needed. No change, which is what status quo means, historically has always been the strategy for defeat. Perhaps the situation could be described as "maintain peaceful change." One can also hope that China, which has changed its attitude toward the international community in many ways, will begin to accept that the "one China" principle, "one country, two systems," and the vast number of "compatriots on Taiwan" that supposedly want unification are things of the past.
Nat Bellocchi is the former chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) and is now a special adviser to the Liberty Times Group. The views expressed in this article are his own.
The muting of the line “I’m from Taiwan” (我台灣來欸), sung in Hoklo (commonly known as Taiwanese), during a performance at the closing ceremony of the World Masters Games in New Taipei City on May 31 has sparked a public outcry. The lyric from the well-known song All Eyes on Me (世界都看見) — originally written and performed by Taiwanese hip-hop group Nine One One (玖壹壹) — was muted twice, while the subtitles on the screen showed an alternate line, “we come here together” (阮作伙來欸), which was not sung. The song, performed at the ceremony by a cheerleading group, was the theme
Secretary of State Marco Rubio raised eyebrows recently when he declared the era of American unipolarity over. He described America’s unrivaled dominance of the international system as an anomaly that was created by the collapse of the Soviet Union at the end of the Cold War. Now, he observed, the United States was returning to a more multipolar world where there are great powers in different parts of the planet. He pointed to China and Russia, as well as “rogue states like Iran and North Korea” as examples of countries the United States must contend with. This all begs the question:
When US budget carrier Southwest Airlines last week announced a new partnership with China Airlines, Southwest’s social media were filled with comments from travelers excited by the new opportunity to visit China. Of course, China Airlines is not based in China, but in Taiwan, and the new partnership connects Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport with 30 cities across the US. At a time when China is increasing efforts on all fronts to falsely label Taiwan as “China” in all arenas, Taiwan does itself no favors by having its flagship carrier named China Airlines. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is eager to jump at
Liberals have wasted no time in pointing to Karol Nawrocki’s lack of qualifications for his new job as president of Poland. He has never previously held political office. He won by the narrowest of margins, with 50.9 percent of the vote. However, Nawrocki possesses the one qualification that many national populists value above all other: a taste for physical strength laced with violence. Nawrocki is a former boxer who still likes to go a few rounds. He is also such an enthusiastic soccer supporter that he reportedly got the logos of his two favorite teams — Chelsea and Lechia Gdansk —
RSS