On Dec. 30 last year, China's ambassador to the US, Yang Jiechi (
The opening paragraph of the letter is as follows:
"I have learnt with deep concern that some Congressional members are currently drafting a resolution to support the Taiwan authorities' attempt to hold a `referendum' and write a `new constitution.' This is a highly political issue which deserves close attention."
Yang went on to argue that the proposed referendum is "a cover for [President Chen Shui-bian's (
Chen, on the other hand, insists that the defensive referendum is intended to make the people of Taiwan more aware of China's military threat and to help preserve the status quo.? He wants to conduct the referendum on March 20, in conjunction with the presidential election, in spite of the objections of the administration of US President George W. Bush.
China has threatened to use force if Taiwan holds a referendum. In July last year, Chen Yunlin (
On Dec. 17, Li Weiyi (
So there exists the potential for Chinese military action against Taiwan in March or around May 20, the day the winner of the election will be inaugurated. Yet it is virtually impossible for Chen Shui-bian to accede to the Bush administration's wishes.
Over the past few years, there has been a groundswell of nationalism in Taiwan in response to China's intransigence.
There were two demonstrations last year in support of a referendum law and a new constitution to improve the efficiency of government. The demonstrators numbered 150,000 in Taipei and 200,000 in Kaohsiung. No political party that ignores such an outpouring of popular will can stay in power.
That is why the pan-blue alliance of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the People First Party reversed its long-held positions and pushed for the passage of its version of the Referendum Law (
The US' interest is maintaining the status quo, which gives Taiwan de facto independent status.
If the Bush administration succeeds in compelling Chen Shui-bian to abandon the peace referendum, his disappointed supporters could well abstain from voting to protest his betrayal of democratic values. Chen Shui-bian's defeat would likely result in Taiwan's capitulation to China within a couple of years. This would effectively terminate the US' role as guarantor of peace and stability, drastically alter the geopolitical landscape of East Asia and usher in instability and turmoil in the region.
What can be done to resolve the impasse? The first step is to do away with the misconceptions and falsehoods that surround the dispute about Taiwan's proposed referendum.
Below is an open letter to members of the US House of Representatives that rebuts Yang's letter and offers a proper way to forestall a conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
"Dear Representative: As your constituent, I am concerned about the seeming disagreement between President George W. Bush and President Chen Shui-bian regarding the `peace referendum' which Chen proposes to conduct on March 20, 2004, in conjunction with the presidential election in Taiwan.
"The US' Taiwan Relations Act (Public Law 96-8) states: `The preservation and enhancement of the human rights of all the people on Taiwan are hereby affirmed as objectives of the United States'? (Section 2(c)).
"To achieve the objectives described in the act, the Bush administration is mandated by Congress to `maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan'? (Section 2(a)(6)).
"On Dec. 30, Ambassador Jiechi Yang of China sent you a letter outlining China's objections to the `peace referendum.' I would like to point out some factual errors in that letter.
"The US does not recognize China's claim of sovereignty over Taiwan. We merely acknowledge the Chinese position, without agreeing to it.
"The US' `one China' policy differs from China's `one China' principle in other respects. The US insists on peaceful resolution of Taiwan's future status and that any settlement must have the assent of the people of Taiwan. China insists that it has a right to resort to force and coercion and that the future status of Taiwan is to be decided exclusively by the Chinese government.
"Yang asserts that China's basic policy is `peaceful reunification.' China ceded Taiwan to Japan in 1895. Since then Taiwan has been ruled by a central Chinese government for only four years -- 1945 to 1949. The current government in Beijing has never ruled Taiwan.
"The word `reunification' is a misnomer; `annexation' is more apt. The word `peaceful' is inappropriate, too, since China has for years been developing the military capability to launch a multi-pronged attack against Taiwan and to deny US forces the opportunity to render assistance in time. Beyond the several hundred missiles targeted at Taiwan, the People's Liberation Army has acquired modern weaponry and conducted massive military exercises -- these are hardly evidence of peaceful intentions.
"Chen Shui-bian's `peace referendum' will ask China to renounce the use of force and to withdraw the missiles deployed against Taiwan. It is a defensive referendum which does not involve independence or annexation. China's concern that any referendum mechanism can later be utilized to decide Taiwan's sovereignty is disingenuous.
"Taiwan's Referendum Law, which was passed on Nov. 27 last year, was drafted by the pan-blue alliance, which favors Taiwan's eventual annexation by China. The law is designed to prevent a referendum on the independence or annexation issue.
"From the US' standpoint, a referendum is desirable. How else could the people of Taiwan express their assent to a proposed settlement of Taiwan's status?
"In order to preserve Taiwan's hard-won freedom and to keep the peace in the Taiwan Strait, we request that you support the resolution soon to be introduced in the House of Representatives to urge the Bush administration to (1) affirm our commitment to defend Taiwan's democracy in accordance with the Taiwan Relations Act; (2) refrain from interfering in Taiwan's domestic politics and withdraw its objections to Chen Shui-bian's "peace referendum," which cannot be deemed "provocative" by any stretch of the imagination; and (3) reinforce US naval and air presence in the Western Pacific promptly so as to deter any military adventure by China.
"While much of the US ground force is tied up in Iraq and the US military is stretched thin, we can deploy sufficient naval and air power in the Western Pacific to deter Chinese military aggression against democratic Taiwan.
"At issue are not just the freedom of the 23 million citizens of Taiwan and peace in the Taiwan Strait, but also whether China will become a peaceful member of the global community or instead turn into an expansionist power intent on becoming the hegemon of Asia and beyond.
"Standing firmly with our democratic friends is in our national interest.
"As the wise former US Representative Gerald Solomon said: `Taiwan's security is ultimately America's security as well.'
"I look forward to hearing your view on this important subject."
Li Thian-hok is a freelance commentator in Pennsylvania.
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