After trying strategies such as propaganda attacks and military threats to block Taiwan's democratization, and having seen all of them prove ineffective, China has recently resorted to a different strategy -- internationalizing the Taiwan issue.
Under the banner of opposing Taiwanese independence, Beijing is in effect trying to deprive Taiwanese people of the right to hold referendums, rewrite the Constitution and become their own masters.
A Washington Post report published on Jan. 2 pointed out that a new national identity has emerged in Taiwan after more than 50 years of democratic advances. Politicians in major Western nations, however, have apparently failed to sense this change. Therefore, China's strategy of mobilizing international forces to "besiege" Taiwan has proven effective.
US President George W. Bush, the EU and Katsuhisa Uchida, director of the Taipei Office of Japan's Interchange Association, have expressed strong concern over Taiwan's plan to hold a "defensive referendum."
Predictably, other small nations, especially some in the Asia-Pacific region, will express their concerns as well. But the expression of delight on Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's (
Isn't it farcical for Western leaders to end up becoming protagonists in a play directed by authoritarian China?
Taiwan should understand the difficulties that these leaders face but cannot mention. I believe they have not given up their faith in democracy; rather, they are only perfunctorily satisfying China's demands.
Nations with an important interest in the Asia-Pacific region care about peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. If we look back at wars after World War II, either the expansion of autocratic nations led to military conflicts with democratic nations, or autocracies waged war against one another. It was extremely rare for democracies to resort to military force against other democracies to resolve problems.
For Western nations to maintain peace in the Taiwan Strait, the key lies in helping China peacefully transform itself into a democracy. Taiwan's democratic achievements serve as the best contrast to and containment of China's authoritarian rule.
For Western nations to isolate Taiwan as it democratizes, and give in to China's military buildup and meet its demands in exchange for temporary peace, would be an appeasement strategy similar to the one Neville Chamberlain adopted to feed Adolf Hitler's arrogance. This ultimately would bring disaster to democracies.
To a certain degree, the US and Japan have accommodated themselves to China because they need help from China on North Korea's nuclear problem. But they should realize that Beijing is on much closer terms with North Korea than with the US and Japan. They should not be bewildered by China's facade of sincerity.
In an interview published in the Chinese newspaper Global Times on Dec. 29, Chinese military expert Jiang Zhijun (
Apparently, Beijing has an ulterior motive in its unification mission. If it occupies Taiwan, the vast Pacific Ocean will be its next goal. China will target not only Japan but also the US.
Paul Lin is a political commentator based in New York.
Translated by Jackie Lin
In their recent op-ed “Trump Should Rein In Taiwan” in Foreign Policy magazine, Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim argued that the US should pressure President William Lai (賴清德) to “tone it down” to de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait — as if Taiwan’s words are more of a threat to peace than Beijing’s actions. It is an old argument dressed up in new concern: that Washington must rein in Taipei to avoid war. However, this narrative gets it backward. Taiwan is not the problem; China is. Calls for a so-called “grand bargain” with Beijing — where the US pressures Taiwan into concessions
The term “assassin’s mace” originates from Chinese folklore, describing a concealed weapon used by a weaker hero to defeat a stronger adversary with an unexpected strike. In more general military parlance, the concept refers to an asymmetric capability that targets a critical vulnerability of an adversary. China has found its modern equivalent of the assassin’s mace with its high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) weapons, which are nuclear warheads detonated at a high altitude, emitting intense electromagnetic radiation capable of disabling and destroying electronics. An assassin’s mace weapon possesses two essential characteristics: strategic surprise and the ability to neutralize a core dependency.
Chinese President and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Chairman Xi Jinping (習近平) said in a politburo speech late last month that his party must protect the “bottom line” to prevent systemic threats. The tone of his address was grave, revealing deep anxieties about China’s current state of affairs. Essentially, what he worries most about is systemic threats to China’s normal development as a country. The US-China trade war has turned white hot: China’s export orders have plummeted, Chinese firms and enterprises are shutting up shop, and local debt risks are mounting daily, causing China’s economy to flag externally and hemorrhage internally. China’s
US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) were born under the sign of Gemini. Geminis are known for their intelligence, creativity, adaptability and flexibility. It is unlikely, then, that the trade conflict between the US and China would escalate into a catastrophic collision. It is more probable that both sides would seek a way to de-escalate, paving the way for a Trump-Xi summit that allows the global economy some breathing room. Practically speaking, China and the US have vulnerabilities, and a prolonged trade war would be damaging for both. In the US, the electoral system means that public opinion
RSS