On Saturday President Chen Shui-bian (
For a start Taiwan is simply not in a state of "imminent threat." Taiwanese realize the danger that China poses, but they do not think this is a danger that is likely to turn very ugly very quickly. What might turn it ugly, in fact, is Chen's call for a sovereignty vote. Taiwanese are likely to interpret Chen's call as a semantic trick which could put them in very real danger. They will not like this. And the US will conclude that everything it has heard about Chen being irresponsible in provoking China if he can thereby gain some election advantage is, in fact, true. How smart is that?
It is true that Taiwanese will back their leader in a crisis with China, as they did in 1996. But that crisis was brought about by Lee Teng-hui (
The main point of the referendum law, and one which almost nobody has commented on so far, is that the old model for unification which China has long cherished is now impossible. Beijing has thought reunification was possible as an agreement between two ruling cabals -- it has thought party-to-party negotiations sufficient. It has of course been buttressed in this misapprehension by reaching agreements about the return of Hong Kong and Macau with their colonial overlords without even the hint of an attempt to seek the views of the luckless inhabitants of those territories concerning their future.
Now Taiwanese people have been given the right to vote directly on issues of national importance. It is simply absurd for the pan-greens moaning about the "birdcage" referendum law to think that the Taiwanese people will be denied a say on the greatest question of all, however restricted the current law might be.
This means that China has to change its policy. If it really wants unification as much as it claims, it has to persuade Taiwanese that it would be good for them. After 50 years of wielding the stick it now has to try using the carrot. It is quite possible that this hasn't really sunk in in Beijing yet. And given the glacial way policy change occurs there it will be at least two years before we see any evidence that Beijing has mapped out the geography of the new playing field. During this time Taiwan should refrain from doing anything to interfere with this process. It should hold referendums on sensible topics to establish the process in voters' minds. It should leave sovereignty issues well alone.
Could Asia be on the verge of a new wave of nuclear proliferation? A look back at the early history of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which recently celebrated its 75th anniversary, illuminates some reasons for concern in the Indo-Pacific today. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin recently described NATO as “the most powerful and successful alliance in history,” but the organization’s early years were not without challenges. At its inception, the signing of the North Atlantic Treaty marked a sea change in American strategic thinking. The United States had been intent on withdrawing from Europe in the years following
My wife and I spent the week in the interior of Taiwan where Shuyuan spent her childhood. In that town there is a street that functions as an open farmer’s market. Walk along that street, as Shuyuan did yesterday, and it is next to impossible to come home empty-handed. Some mangoes that looked vaguely like others we had seen around here ended up on our table. Shuyuan told how she had bought them from a little old farmer woman from the countryside who said the mangoes were from a very old tree she had on her property. The big surprise
The issue of China’s overcapacity has drawn greater global attention recently, with US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen urging Beijing to address its excess production in key industries during her visit to China last week. Meanwhile in Brussels, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last week said that Europe must have a tough talk with China on its perceived overcapacity and unfair trade practices. The remarks by Yellen and Von der Leyen come as China’s economy is undergoing a painful transition. Beijing is trying to steer the world’s second-largest economy out of a COVID-19 slump, the property crisis and
Former president Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) trip to China provides a pertinent reminder of why Taiwanese protested so vociferously against attempts to force through the cross-strait service trade agreement in 2014 and why, since Ma’s presidential election win in 2012, they have not voted in another Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) candidate. While the nation narrowly avoided tragedy — the treaty would have put Taiwan on the path toward the demobilization of its democracy, which Courtney Donovan Smith wrote about in the Taipei Times in “With the Sunflower movement Taiwan dodged a bullet” — Ma’s political swansong in China, which included fawning dithyrambs