The government’s business climate monitor last month signaled “yellow-blue” for the 10th consecutive month as exports fell and business confidence waned, suggesting an extended soft patch without an evident sign of deterioration, the National Development Council (NDC) said yesterday.
“The latest data show that the economy, while stable, is not strong enough to shake off sluggish growth,” NDC research director Wu Ming-huei (吳明蕙) said, but added that there were not any signs of a downturn either.
The council uses a five-color system to depict the state of the economy, with “green” indicating steady growth, “red” suggesting overheating and “blue” signaling a recession. Dual colors indicate a transition.
Exports, which have a heavy weighting in GDP makeup, declined 1.5 percent last month, but might recover modestly this month on the back of the peak season for critical components used in consumer electronics and technology products, the Ministry of Finance said earlier this month.
Overall business confidence dropped slightly as some companies became more optimistic, but many expect moderation after the end of a peak season, a Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (台灣經濟研究院) survey found.
The biggest uncertainty is a trade dispute between the US and China, which has pulled the manufacturing purchasing managers’ indices in China, Japan and the eurozone into contraction territory, the council said.
That suggests a tough external environment that might weigh on Taiwanese exports, Wu said.
Fortunately, local semiconductors firms have bought capital equipment to upgrade technology and capacity, propelled by the deployment of 5G networks, Wu said.
Other firms lent support by moving production lines back home to avoid punitive tariffs imposed on Chinese goods by Washington, boosting private investment, she said.
The leading index series, which aims to project the economic picture for the next six months, inched up 0.17 percent to 102.14, supported by better readings on semiconductor equipment imports, export orders, stock prices and new construction floor areas, the council said.
The coincident index series, which reflects the current economic situation, rose 0.11 percent to 100.07, thanks to better machinery imports, industrial production as well as wholesale, retail and restaurant revenues, it said.
The consumer confidence index weakened 0.6 points to 80.37, as people turned conservative about stock investments, while becoming more confident about the economy, durable goods purchases and household income, a survey by National Central University showed yesterday.
However, people are less optimistic about the job market and have a negative view of the local stock market, as the TAIEX has rallied to 30-year highs of above 11,600 points, the survey found.
SECOND-RATE: Models distilled from US products do not perform the same as the original and undo measures that ensure the systems are neutral, the US’ cable said The US Department of State has ordered a global push to bring attention to what it said are widespread efforts by Chinese companies, including artificial intelligence (AI) start-up DeepSeek (深度求索), to steal intellectual property from US AI labs, according to a diplomatic cable. The cable, dated Friday and sent to diplomatic and consular posts around the world, instructs diplomatic staff to speak to their foreign counterparts about “concerns over adversaries’ extraction and distillation of US AI models.” Distillation is the process of training smaller AI models using output from larger, more expensive ones to lower the costs of training a powerful new
Singapore-based ride-hailing and delivery giant Grab Holdings’ planned acquisition of Foodpanda’s Taiwan operations has yet to enter the formal review stage, as regulators await supplementary documents, the Fair Trade Commission (FTC) said yesterday. Acting FTC Chairman Chen Chih-min (陳志民) told the legislature’s Economics Committee that although Grab submitted its application on March 27, the case has not been officially accepted because required materials remain incomplete. Once the filing is finalized, the FTC would launch a formal probe into the deal, focusing on issues such as cross-shareholding and potential restrictions on market competition, Chen told lawmakers. Grab last month announced that it would acquire
The artificial intelligence (AI) boom has triggered a seismic reshuffling of global equity markets, with Taiwan and South Korea muscling past European nations one by one. With its stock market now valued at nearly US$4.3 trillion, Taiwan surpassed the UK, Europe’s biggest market, earlier this month, data compiled by Bloomberg showed. South Korea is about US$140 billion away from doing the same. The tech-heavy Asian markets have shot past Germany and France in the past seven months. The shift is largely down to massive gains in shares of three companies that provide essential hardware for AI: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電),
Shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電) have repeatedly hit new highs, but an equity analyst said the stock’s valuation remains within a reasonable range and any pullback would likely be technical. The contract chipmaker’s historical price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has ranged between 20 and 30, Cathay Futures Consultant Co (國泰證期) analyst Tsai Ming-han (蔡明翰) told Central News Agency. With market consensus projecting that TSMC would post earnings per share of about NT$100 (US$3.17) this year, supported by strong global demand for artificial intelligence (AI) applications, and the stock currently trading at a P/E ratio of below 25, Tsai said the valuation
RSS