The Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER, 中華經濟研究院) yesterday revised down its forecast for the nation’s GDP growth this year, but said it expected the figure to remain above 2 percent as robust capital spending helps mitigate the pain of slower exports.
The institute now expects the economy to expand by 2.06 percent, down from its previous forecast of 2.15 percent.
“The nation’s economic growth might stay above the 2 percent mark, as it improves each quarter,” following a lackluster 1.7 percent increase in the first half, CIER president Chen Shi-kuan (陳思寬) said.
The second half is usually the high season for consumer electronic devices, which should benefit Taiwanese companies in their global supply chains.
Fixed investment, led by technology firms, is expected to lift GDP growth this year by 1.21 percentage points with a 6.36 percent expansion, the Taipei-based think tank said in its quarterly report.
Imports of capital equipment rose 15.7 percent in the first half, with semiconductor equipment swelling 40.28 percent in US dollar terms, the institute said.
The government and public enterprises should help boost the economy, with investments rising 10.15 percent and 7.5 percent respectively, as exports take a hit from the US-China trade dispute, it said.
Exports, normally the main growth driver, is forecast to swing to growth from this quarter, advancing by 3.13 percent and 6.03 percent in the third and fourth quarters respectively, it said.
The critical GDP component contracted 4.24 percent and 2.56 percent in the first and second quarters due to uncertainty and a seasonal slowdown.
For the full year, exports are expected to edge up 0.7 percent, while imports are forecast to rise 1.79 percent, thanks in part to Taiwanese businesses moving back from China, the institute said.
The government has received more than 80 such applications, bringing more than NT$400 billion (US$12.87 billion) in prospective investments.
More than 60 percent of Taiwanese companies maintain factories or operations in China and 60 percent have taken measures to cope with tariff hikes, CIER said, adding that nearly 19 percent are considering moving back to Taiwan.
The trade dispute topped the list of concerns among local firms, followed by currency volatility, and wild swings in global crude oil and raw material prices, it found.
Local firms have to watch out for Chinese yuan movements as it seeks to replace the US dollar in global trade, Yuanta-Polaris Research Institute (元大寶華綜經院) president Liang Kuo-yuan (梁國源) said.
The domestic unit of the Chinese-owned, Dutch-headquartered chipmaker Nexperia BV will soon be able to produce semiconductors locally within China, according to two company sources. Nexperia is at the center of a global tug-of-war over critical semiconductor technology, with a Dutch court in February ordering a probe into alleged mismanagement at the company. The geopolitical tussle has disrupted supply chains, with some carmakers reportedly forced to cut production due to chip shortages. Local production would allow Nexperia’s domestic arm, Nexperia Semiconductors (China) Ltd (安世半導體中國), to bypass restrictions in place since October on the supply of silicon wafers — etched with tiny components to
Singapore-based ride-hailing and delivery giant Grab Holdings Ltd has applied for regulatory approval to acquire the Taiwan operations of Germany-based Delivery Hero SE's Foodpanda in a deal valued at about US$600 million. Grab submitted the filing to the Fair Trade Commission on Friday last week, with the transaction subject to regulatory review and approval, the company said in a statement yesterday. Its independent governance structure would help foster a healthy and competitive market in Taiwan if the deal is approved, Grab said. Grab, which is listed on the NASDAQ, said in the filing that US-based Uber Technologies Inc holds about 13 percent of
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電) yesterday received government approval to deploy its advanced 3-nanometer (3nm) process at its second fab currently under construction in Japan, the Ministry of Economic Affairs said in a news release. The ministry green-lit the plan for the facility in Kumamoto, which is scheduled to start installing equipment and come online in 2028 with a monthly production capacity of 15,000 12-inch wafers, the ministry said. The Department of Investment Review in June 2024 authorized a US$5.26 billion investment for the facility, slated to manufacture 6- to 12nm chips, significantly less advanced than 3nm process. At a meeting with
Taiwan is open to joining a global liquefied natural gas (LNG) program if one is created, but on the condition that countries provide delivery even in a scenario where there is a conflict with China, an energy department official said yesterday. While Taiwan’s priority is to have enough LNG at home, the nation is open to exploring potential strategic reserves in other countries such as Japan or South Korea, Energy Administration Deputy Director-General Chen Chung-hsien (陳崇憲) said. While the LNG market does not have a global reserve for emergencies like that of oil, the concept has been raised a few times —
RSS