The Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER, 中華經濟研究院) yesterday revised down its forecast for the nation’s GDP growth this year, but said it expected the figure to remain above 2 percent as robust capital spending helps mitigate the pain of slower exports.
The institute now expects the economy to expand by 2.06 percent, down from its previous forecast of 2.15 percent.
“The nation’s economic growth might stay above the 2 percent mark, as it improves each quarter,” following a lackluster 1.7 percent increase in the first half, CIER president Chen Shi-kuan (陳思寬) said.
The second half is usually the high season for consumer electronic devices, which should benefit Taiwanese companies in their global supply chains.
Fixed investment, led by technology firms, is expected to lift GDP growth this year by 1.21 percentage points with a 6.36 percent expansion, the Taipei-based think tank said in its quarterly report.
Imports of capital equipment rose 15.7 percent in the first half, with semiconductor equipment swelling 40.28 percent in US dollar terms, the institute said.
The government and public enterprises should help boost the economy, with investments rising 10.15 percent and 7.5 percent respectively, as exports take a hit from the US-China trade dispute, it said.
Exports, normally the main growth driver, is forecast to swing to growth from this quarter, advancing by 3.13 percent and 6.03 percent in the third and fourth quarters respectively, it said.
The critical GDP component contracted 4.24 percent and 2.56 percent in the first and second quarters due to uncertainty and a seasonal slowdown.
For the full year, exports are expected to edge up 0.7 percent, while imports are forecast to rise 1.79 percent, thanks in part to Taiwanese businesses moving back from China, the institute said.
The government has received more than 80 such applications, bringing more than NT$400 billion (US$12.87 billion) in prospective investments.
More than 60 percent of Taiwanese companies maintain factories or operations in China and 60 percent have taken measures to cope with tariff hikes, CIER said, adding that nearly 19 percent are considering moving back to Taiwan.
The trade dispute topped the list of concerns among local firms, followed by currency volatility, and wild swings in global crude oil and raw material prices, it found.
Local firms have to watch out for Chinese yuan movements as it seeks to replace the US dollar in global trade, Yuanta-Polaris Research Institute (元大寶華綜經院) president Liang Kuo-yuan (梁國源) said.
SEMICONDUCTORS: The German laser and plasma generator company will expand its local services as its specialized offerings support Taiwan’s semiconductor industries Trumpf SE + Co KG, a global leader in supplying laser technology and plasma generators used in chip production, is expanding its investments in Taiwan in an effort to deeply integrate into the global semiconductor supply chain in the pursuit of growth. The company, headquartered in Ditzingen, Germany, has invested significantly in a newly inaugurated regional technical center for plasma generators in Taoyuan, its latest expansion in Taiwan after being engaged in various industries for more than 25 years. The center, the first of its kind Trumpf built outside Germany, aims to serve customers from Taiwan, Japan, Southeast Asia and South Korea,
Gasoline and diesel prices at domestic fuel stations are to fall NT$0.2 per liter this week, down for a second consecutive week, CPC Corp, Taiwan (台灣中油) and Formosa Petrochemical Corp (台塑石化) announced yesterday. Effective today, gasoline prices at CPC and Formosa stations are to drop to NT$26.4, NT$27.9 and NT$29.9 per liter for 92, 95 and 98-octane unleaded gasoline respectively, the companies said in separate statements. The price of premium diesel is to fall to NT$24.8 per liter at CPC stations and NT$24.6 at Formosa pumps, they said. The price adjustments came even as international crude oil prices rose last week, as traders
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電), which supplies advanced chips to Nvidia Corp and Apple Inc, yesterday reported NT$1.046 trillion (US$33.1 billion) in revenue for last quarter, driven by constantly strong demand for artificial intelligence (AI) chips, falling in the upper end of its forecast. Based on TSMC’s financial guidance, revenue would expand about 22 percent sequentially to the range from US$32.2 billion to US$33.4 billion during the final quarter of 2024, it told investors in October last year. Last year in total, revenue jumped 31.61 percent to NT$3.81 trillion, compared with NT$2.89 trillion generated in the year before, according to
PRECEDENTED TIMES: In news that surely does not shock, AI and tech exports drove a banner for exports last year as Taiwan’s economic growth experienced a flood tide Taiwan’s exports delivered a blockbuster finish to last year with last month’s shipments rising at the second-highest pace on record as demand for artificial intelligence (AI) hardware and advanced computing remained strong, the Ministry of Finance said yesterday. Exports surged 43.4 percent from a year earlier to US$62.48 billion last month, extending growth to 26 consecutive months. Imports climbed 14.9 percent to US$43.04 billion, the second-highest monthly level historically, resulting in a trade surplus of US$19.43 billion — more than double that of the year before. Department of Statistics Director-General Beatrice Tsai (蔡美娜) described the performance as “surprisingly outstanding,” forecasting export growth
RSS