Export orders last month rose 5.1 percent from a year earlier to a new high of US$48.99 billion, as global technology brands launched new-generation devices, benefiting local firms in their supply chains, the Ministry of Economic Affairs said yesterday.
The momentum is likely to continue at a similar pace or slip slightly this month, as sales of the latest smartphone models disappoint, despite the advent of the holiday season in the West, the ministry said.
Export orders, a bellwether of actual shipments one to three months later, might fall to somewhere between US$48 billion and US$49 billion this month, Department of Statistics Director-General Lin Lee-jen (林麗貞) said.
“Sales of technology devices are usually strongest in the fourth quarter, as new product launches spur replacement demand,” Lin told a media briefing in Taipei.
However, the ongoing trade row between the US and China has cast a shadow on the landscape, prompting firms to turn conservative, Lin said.
Taiwan is home to the world’s leading chipmakers, chip designers, camera lenses, flat panels and other critical components used in smartphones, laptops, connected vehicles, Internet of Things and artificial intelligence applications.
Export orders for information and communications technology products last month picked up 3 percent to a record US$16.35 billion, as local firms benefited from inventory demand linked to the launch of smartphones and wearable devices by major brands, Lin said.
Electronics orders rose 6.4 percent to US$12.7 billion, while optoelectronics orders gained 3.5 percent to US$2.26 billion, the ministry’s report said, adding that customers from the US and China accounted for the bulk of demand.
Orders for non-technology products were mixed.
Chemical orders advanced 22 percent from a year earlier, while plastic and base metal orders posted a low single-digit percentage increase, it said.
“Oil price changes to a large degree explained market directions,” Lin said.
Machinery goods orders squeezed a fractional 0.4 percent increase, as companies turned conservative about equipment upgrades amid the trade dispute, Lin said.
A majority of firms, or 59.5 percent, expect flat sales ahead, while 24.8 percent expect business to decline, Lin said.
Demand for flat panels used in smartphones dropped by 10 to 20 percent, as sales of new models were weaker than expected, Lin said, alluding to the new iPhone series.
Large-sized panel prices softened, while demand showed an improvement, Lin said.
Standard Chartered Bank said that export orders might have peaked with less sanguine data ahead.
“A less favorable base is likely to place a lid on growth in the coming months” as evidenced by the slowdown in tech orders, the bank’s Taipei-based economist Tony Phoo (符銘財) said in a note.
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