Gold could hit levels last seen in 2013 if the US dollar extends its slide and equity markets reverse.
Bullion at US$1,400 an ounce is “achievable” in the next two months, Stephen Innes, head of trading for Asia Pacific at brokerage Oanda Corp, said in an interview Thursday.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index plunged to the lowest since 2014 after US Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin endorsed the currency’s drop at the orld Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
And while global equity markets have repeatedly hit all-time highs over the past few months, gold is also on the march, rising to as much as US$1,366.15 an ounce on Thursday, its best mark since August 2016.
The metal for immediate delivery on Friday climbed 0.2 percent to US$1,361.12 an ounce, up 2.2 percent for the week, while an index of the dollar dropped by 0.5 percent.
Gold has climbed more than 8 percent since the middle of last month as the US dollar slumped and investors sought protection from a potential tumble in share markets and a resurgence of inflation.
Holdings of bullion in exchange-traded funds have grown to the largest since 2013, while money managers have more than doubled their net bullish bets on Comex since the middle of last month.
“We see a host of ongoing financial market drivers keeping the gold market tight,” Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (ANZ) analysts, including Daniel Hynes, said in a report Thursday. “Further weakness in the dollar and rising risks of a correction in equity markets, in particular, should be supportive.”
The US dollar’s decline has come amid expectations that other central banks, notably the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, are moving closer to cutting monetary stimulus.
In Davos, Mnuchin said that “a weaker dollar is good” for US trade, while US Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross said the US would fight harder to protect its exporters.
With the US dollar “prone and defenseless,” these comments added “fuel to the fire,” Singapore-based Innes said.
With these signals from the US government and other central banks, “we’re getting into a structurally weak dollar, and on a macro level, we could be moving into a cyclical bear market beyond 2018,” Innes said. “All I can possibly see right now, given this overriding weaker dollar narrative, is for gold to go higher in the short term.”
ANZ sees prices holding at current levels in the first half of this year, before pushing toward US$1,400 by the end of the year.
A cap on the US dollar this year would be useful to US trade and managing the country’s escalating debt burden, said Gavin Wendt, senior resource analyst at MineLife Pty, who also sees gold hitting US$1,400 this year.
Spot silver climbed and platinum rose for a third day, while palladium fell.
Vanadium has soared more than 130 percent in the past year, outperforming better-known battery components like cobalt, lithium and nickel.
Vanadium pentoxide, a powder form of the metal used in batteries and the steel industry, has rallied 27 percent this year to US$12.38 a pound, Metal Bulletin PLC said.
Malaysia is scrambling to protect its assets as the descendants of the last sultan of the remote Philippine region of Sulu look to enforce a US$15 billion arbitration award in a dispute over a colonial-era land deal. In 1878, two European colonists signed a deal with the sultan for the use of his territory in present-day Malaysia — an agreement that independent Malaysia honored until 2013, paying the monarch’s descendants about US$1,000 per year. Now, 144 years later after the original deal, Malaysia is on the hook for the second-largest arbitration award on record for stopping the payments after a bloody incursion
RECOVERED CONFIDENCE: As market rationality returns, Taiwanese stocks that have lagged behind their US peers might soon catch up, Allianz researchers said Local shares last week defied heavy pressure from China’s military drills in waters around Taiwan, and investors this week are expected to pay attention to earnings results from several tech heavyweights as well as the latest economic data on exports and GDP. The TAIEX closed at 15,036.04 points on Friday, posting a weekly increase of 0.24 percent from 15,000.07 on July 29, Taiwan Stock Exchange data showed. Over the same period, the FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 Index, which comprises Taiwan’s top 50 stocks in terms of market capitalization, closed up 0.93 percent at 11,750.15 points, while the Formosa Stock Index, which measures
Pharmaceutical start-up AcadeMab Biomedical Inc (研生生醫) said it has been developing a COVID-19 antibody drug, an endeavor not being undertaken by many other Taiwanese pharmaceutical firms. The company was spun off from Academia Sinica’s Institute of Cellular and Organismic Biology in 2020 and has only 16 employees. It has set its sights on the innovative field of the monoclonal antibody treatment of tumors. The start-up began developing antibody drugs in January, after seeing that COVID-19 vaccines could not effectively protect people from new variants of SARS-CoV-2, AcadeMab Biomedical chief strategy officer Pearl Fong (俸清珠) said in an interview with the Taipei Times
FORECAST EXCEEDED: China’s curbs on some Taiwanese goods are unlikely to affect trade given inter-reliance in the electronics industries, a finance ministry official said Exports last month spiked 14.2 percent to US$43.32 billion, the second-highest increase on record and the 25th consecutive month of gains, driven by global demand for electronics used in high-performance computing and vehicles, the Ministry of Finance said yesterday. The ministry expects the trend to sustain this month and beyond, although the pace could slow due to inventory corrections for laptops, smartphones and other consumer electronics. “The July results proved stronger than expected despite rising fears over economic uncertainty,” Department of Statistics Director-General Beatrice Tsai (蔡美娜) said, adding that a high sales season in the West and stabilized COVID-19 infections in China