For a currency that surged the most in almost a decade in the first quarter of the year, the New Taiwan dollar sure has turned boring.
Price swings in the exchange rate over the past month are the smallest among the 16 major currencies tracked globally by Bloomberg, with even the Singapore dollar being livelier.
The NT dollar has traded between 30.7 and 29.9 against the US greenback since the end of March, just a third of the size of its first-quarter trading range.
The culprit is suspected to be the central bank seeking to prevent currency strength from damaging exports, which account for more than half of the nation’s GDP.
Foreign reserves have climbed for the past five months, a sign the monetary authority was purchasing US dollars to curb appreciation.
Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (ANZ) estimates the central bank bought US$3.2 billion worth in July and last month alone.
“The central bank’s intervention has been quite persistent this year,” said Khoon Goh (吳昆), ANZ’s head of Asian research in Singapore. “The central bank is likely to continue ensuring that the Taiwan dollar does not appreciate too strongly, with 30 a very formidable level.”
The NT dollar has risen beyond 30 on five different days this year, only to close weaker than that level. The last time the currency ended a daily trading session stronger than 30 was in September 2014.
While suspected intervention may be limiting the currency’s gains around the 30 level, declines in the greenback and overseas inflows into the local stock market have curbed any weakness.
Foreign investors pumped a net US$7 billion into Taiwanese equities this year, the most among 10 Asian markets tracked by Bloomberg.
When asked by Bloomberg News if the central bank was intervening in the currency market, bank Governor Perng Fai-nan said at a news briefing last week that the exchange rate is “determined by the market” and the “central bank will step in to maintain order if irregular factors cause excessive fluctuations.”
The risk of criticism by the US Department of the Treasury might also be playing a role in how far the central bank can go. The bank scaled back daily end-of-day intervention last year after Taiwan was put on a US currency watch list, which can lead to penalties.
The US Treasury is due to release its next report next month.
The British pound has been the most volatile among the 16 major currencies in the past month, followed by the New Zealand dollar and Norway’s krone.
The NT dollar yesterday closed down 0.3 percent at 30.303 per dollar, its lowest level in a month.
Disappointment over Apple Inc’s latest products may ease pressure on the currency — and the central bank. Overseas investors this month have pulled a net US$1.8 billion from the nation’s stock market, which is dominated by Apple suppliers.
Tighter monetary policy in the US is also likely weaken Taiwan’s currency from here, Goh said.
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