As Taiwan searches for a new central bank governor for the first time in two decades, economists see the government choosing more of the same.
Central bank Deputy Governor Yang Chin-long (楊金龍) is the leading contender to become Taiwan’s first new chief policymaker since 1998 after Governor Perng Fai-nan’s (彭淮南) term ends in February, according to a survey of economists.
Yang topped the poll ahead of another widely tipped candidate, Premier Lin Chuan (林全).
Yang is the continuity candidate, having worked at the central bank throughout Perng’s term, during which time Taiwan’s economy has doubled in size.
Government officials have so far remained tight-lipped about which candidates they are considering.
The final decision rests with President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文).
With the top five names in the survey all men over 60, the result represents the view among economists that the government will prioritize stability over change at the central bank.
“The age of the top five contenders is something to pay attention to, but a seamless transition is the top concern,” said Kevin Wang (王凱民), an economist at Taishin Securities Investment Advisory Co (台新投顧) in Taipei and a participant in the survey.
Twenty-three economists took part in the survey, conducted between Aug. 8 and Aug. 15.
The Bloomberg poll did not provide a list of candidates to choose from. Participants were free to submit the names of any candidates.
Here are the top five names from the survey.
Yang: continuity candidate
Apart from a few years as a researcher at the Taiwan Academy of Banking and Finance in the 1980s, Yang has spent most of his career at the central bank. Having started out in the Department of Economic Research, he worked his way up through the organization over the intervening 28 years to become deputy governor.
On his way, he worked in two key divisions, foreign exchange and banking, making him an obvious choice.
Lin: Tsai’s trusted lieutenant
Tsai named Lin premier to lead her Cabinet, even though he is a political independent, underlining the level of trust she has in him.
However, Lin’s term has been marked by protests over government infrastructure plans and labor and pension reforms. There has been continued speculation in the local media he could step down and take over as head of the central bank.
Chen Shih-meng: Polemicist
A veteran figure in pro-independence circles, Chen Shih-meng (陳師孟) has been active in politics and academia.
Deputy governor of the central bank from 2000 to 2002 and chief of staff to former president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁), he authored an economics textbook still widely used in local universities. His knowledge of monetary policy is not in question.
Wu Rong-i: An old hand
Wu Rong-i (吳榮義) is a heavyweight of the Democratic Progressive Party, having served as vice premier. Wu gained experience in both government and finance throughout his career.
He is now an adviser to the president and the chairman of Taiwania Investment Management Corp (台杉投資管理), a government-led investment vehicle.
Shea Jia-dong: Change agent
Shea Jia-dong (許嘉棟) was deputy central bank governor between 1996 and 2000, playing a key role alongside Perng in guiding Taiwan through the Asian financial crisis.
The 68-year-old has been among the loudest critics of the central bank’s monetary policy, forcing it to publicly respond on several occasions.
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