Taiwan’s economy is likely to grow 1.73 percent next year, below the 2 percent mark for the third consecutive year, as exports tick up slightly, but domestic demand drives the bulk of growth, the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER, 中華經濟研究院) said yesterday.
“Most people would not feel the benefit of economic growth given the sustained mild pace,” CIER president Wu Chung-shu (吳中書) told an economic forum, attributing the expected upswing partly to a low base this year.
The nation’s economy contracted in the first quarter and staged a small and fragile recovery in the following quarters, according to the Directorate-General of Accounting, Budget and Statistics.
External demand might lift GDP by 0.31 percentage points next year, reversing a drag this year, the Taipei-based think tank said, adding that domestic demand would contribute 1.42 percentage points.
That is because the global economy will not be much brighter next year — with the US poised for stable growth, the eurozone and Japan mired in sluggish recovery and China struggling to curb a slowdown, Wu said.
The global backdrop suggests that exports might gain 3.41 percent annually to US$288.13 billion next year, while imports are likely to grow by 3.57 percent to US$237.78 billion, compared with a decline of 2.35 percent and 3.22 percent respectively this year, the CIER report said.
Taiwan is home to the world’s largest contract chipmakers, chip designers, and other critical electronic components used in smartphones, PCs and peripheral products, and Internet of Things applications.
National Development Council Deputy Minister Kao Shien-quey (高仙桂) said it is difficult to make GDP projections for next year in light of political uncertainty across the world.
US president-elect Donald Trump is to assume office on Jan. 20, and several European and Asian nations are slated to hold national elections later in the year, Kao said.
The policy changes of incoming administrations will have implications for the global economy, Kao said, adding that monetary policy changes by global central banks will also have repercussions on capital markets worldwide.
On the domestic front, private investment and private consumption would increase 1.7 percent and 2.85 percent respectively, compared with pickups of 1.95 percent and 2.21 percent forecast for this year, CIER said.
The figures suggest a lack of consumer confidence going forward, while local technology firms, especially semiconductor makers, will continue to buy capital equipment to maintain their technology advancement, CIER said.
CIER expects consumer prices to rise from 1.36 percent to 1.45 percent and the jobless rate to decline from 3.95 percent to 3.92 percent now that crude oil prices have rebounded.
The New Taiwan dollar will trade at an average of NT$32.35 against the US dollar next year, virtually unchanged from this year’s NT$32.36, the institute said.
Among the rows of vibrators, rubber torsos and leather harnesses at a Chinese sex toys exhibition in Shanghai this weekend, the beginnings of an artificial intelligence (AI)-driven shift in the industry quietly pulsed. China manufactures about 70 percent of the world’s sex toys, most of it the “hardware” on display at the fair — whether that be technicolor tentacled dildos or hyper-realistic personalized silicone dolls. Yet smart toys have been rising in popularity for some time. Many major European and US brands already offer tech-enhanced products that can enable long-distance love, monitor well-being and even bring people one step closer to
Malaysia’s leader yesterday announced plans to build a massive semiconductor design park, aiming to boost the Southeast Asian nation’s role in the global chip industry. A prominent player in the semiconductor industry for decades, Malaysia accounts for an estimated 13 percent of global back-end manufacturing, according to German tech giant Bosch. Now it wants to go beyond production and emerge as a chip design powerhouse too, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said. “I am pleased to announce the largest IC (integrated circuit) Design Park in Southeast Asia, that will house world-class anchor tenants and collaborate with global companies such as Arm [Holdings PLC],”
Sales in the retail, and food and beverage sectors last month continued to rise, increasing 0.7 percent and 13.6 percent respectively from a year earlier, setting record highs for the month of March, the Ministry of Economic Affairs said yesterday. Sales in the wholesale sector also grew last month by 4.6 annually, mainly due to the business opportunities for emerging applications related to artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing technologies, the ministry said in a report. The ministry forecast that retail, and food and beverage sales this month would retain their growth momentum as the former would benefit from Tomb Sweeping Day
TRANSFORMATION: Taiwan is now home to the largest Google hardware research and development center outside of the US, thanks to the nation’s economic policies President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) yesterday attended an event marking the opening of Google’s second hardware research and development (R&D) office in Taiwan, which was held at New Taipei City’s Banciao District (板橋). This signals Taiwan’s transformation into the world’s largest Google hardware research and development center outside of the US, validating the nation’s economic policy in the past eight years, she said. The “five plus two” innovative industries policy, “six core strategic industries” initiative and infrastructure projects have grown the national industry and established resilient supply chains that withstood the COVID-19 pandemic, Tsai said. Taiwan has improved investment conditions of the domestic economy