Confidence in Taiwan’s economy remains soft among experts this quarter, weighed by flagging capital expenditure and private consumption, according to the latest IfoWorld Economic Survey, released yesterday.
The third-quarter survey results ran counter to popular belief that the nation has slowly, but gradually recovered from a downturn with the advent of the high sales season for technology products.
The reading for the macroeconomy came in at 1.5 this quarter, slightly up from 1.4 last quarter, while the sentiment gauge for capital expenditure dropped from 1.8 to 1.5 and private consumption was down from 2.2 to 1.5, the survey of 1,086 experts from 115 countries said.
Scores below 3.5 indicate deterioration and points above 6 suggest upturn, according to the Munich-based think tank.
“The economy is likely hitting the bottom, if not on the course of recovery,” National Development Council Minister Chen Tain-jy (陳添枝) told reporters yesterday afternoon.
Chen attributed his uncertainty to China’s continued slowdown, saying a recovery in Taiwan is impossible unless China first stabilizes given the heavy trade linkage.
The economic outlook may improve in the next six months, supported by positive exports, imports and consumer prices, the survey said.
Imports are a better economic indicator than exports because most imports stem from export needs, Chen said.
Imports registered a marginal decline of 0.2 percent last month from a year earlier, but may recover to positive territory from this month onward, he said.
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