The government’s business monitoring system flashed the 10th straight “blue” signal last month, reflecting a continued weakness in the nation’s economy without signs of a recovery, the National Development Council said yesterday.
The council’s Taiwan Business Indicators stood at 15, shedding one point from February, dragged by slacker imports of machinery and electric equipment, the monthly report said.
“Almost all barometers showed negative movements, although the pace of decline did not widen,” council Director Wu Ming-huei (吳明蕙) told reporters.
A “blue” light indicates economic weakness, while “green” suggests stable conditions and a “red” light signifies overheating.
Chance of a signal change is slim before the second half of the year as the current quarter is a slow season for technology product sales, Wu said.
Disappointing earnings results and guidance from Apple Inc raised doubts about expectations of recovery in the third quarter when the technology giant is due to launch new-generation smartphones.
Demand for high-end handsets appears to have saturated, spelling alarm for Taiwanese companies in their supply chain, analysts said.
The reading on money supply is the only constituent index that gained value last month, the council said.
A consensus is building that the economy domestically and globally might fare equally soft this year compared with last year, Wu said, adding that research institutes have revised down GDP forecasts for Taiwan and globally.
The Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics is tomorrow to unveil the preliminary GDP reading for the January-to-March period.
On a positive note, the leading economic index series, which foretell the economic scenes one to six months earlier, stayed unchanged at 98.11, due to increased business confidence, semiconductor shipments and higher stock prices, the report said.
The concurrent index series, which mirror the present economic state, shed 0.62 percent to 97.19, in line with poor exports, power usage, retail and wholesale figures, the report said.
Against that backdrop, the consumer confidence index waned further to 80.37 this month, down 0.97 points from last month, according to a survey released by National Central University yesterday.
The gauge on stock investment reported the biggest decline of 2.2 points to 68.4, the report said, as uncertainty heightens ahead of possible policy changes by central banks in Japan and the US.
Daily stock turnover shrank below NT$70 billion (US$2.16 billion) this week as investors ponder their next moves.
Buying interest for durable goods dropped 1.15 points to 90.2, while household income outlook softened 0.95 points to 78.95, the survey said.
Values higher than 100 indicate optimism and scores below the threshold signify a lack of confidence.
The sub-index on the economic outlook dipped 0.5 points to 73.15, indicating a further loss of confidence in the economy, the survey said after polling 2,428 adults by telephone between Tuesday and Thursday last week.
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