The nation’s economic monitoring indicators score last month rose one point from a month ago on the back of rising export growth, indicating that the economic recovery is sustaining its momentum well, the National Development Council (NDC) said yesterday.
The score — which takes into account leading and coincident indicators — rose to 27 points last month from 26 points a month ago, according to a report that the council issued yesterday.
Economic monitoring indicators last month flashed “green” for the sixth consecutive time, the report said, using the five-color spectrum the council established to categorize the nation’s economic health.
In the spectrum, “blue” signals recession, “green” indicates steady growth and “red” warns of overheating, while “yellow-blue” reflects a transition between recession and growth, and “yellow-red” represents a transition between growth and overheating.
The country’s exports increased significantly last month because of a rise in outbound shipments of electronic devices, as well as of oil and petrochemical products and cars, Jan Fang-guan (詹方冠), a section head at the council, said at a press conference.
Meanwhile, private consumption remained at a high level last month due to the booming stock market, which boosted consumer confidence, while the national unemployment rate was relatively low, Jan said.
“Based on our observations, the global economy is on the path to improvement, which would benefit Taiwan’s exports,” Jan said. “We believe that we are likely to see a ‘green’ light continuing to flash in the near future.”
According to the council, US forecasting firm Global Insight Inc and the Economist Intelligence Unit last month upgraded their forecasts for economic growth in the US this year to 2.1 percent and 2.2 percent respectively.
Both institutes had previously expected GDP in the world’s No. 1 economy to rise by 1.7 percent for the year, it said.
Jan said that the council will continue monitoring events causing political instability around the world, which is a major risk factor for the global economic recovery.
The index of coincident indicators, which reflects monthly economic conditions, posted its 15th consecutive increase after rising 0.27 percent to 101.44 points last month from 101.17 points a month ago, the council said.
However, the index of leading economic indicators, which is used to gauge the nation’s short-term economic outlook, reported its fifth decline last month after dropping 0.12 percent to 100.14 points from 100.27 the previous month, it said.
Jan said the index’s decline last month could be a short-term phenomenon, adding that the gauge is likely to recover and move upward.
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