Taiwan’s economic recovery is expected to be in better shape in the next two quarters as economists are now more optimistic about the long-term outlook, the Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD) said, citing a report released by a Germany think tank.
The score for the nation’s overall economic situation rose to 8.1 based on the World Economic Survey published by released by IFO Institute for Economic Research on Wednesday, from 7.2 last quarter.
“Most interviewees believe the situation will improve in the next six months,” the council, which helped conduct the survey in Taiwan, said in a statement.
However, Taiwan’s economy in general is expected to stay in the doldrums, the survey showed.
The economic situation improved to 2.5 this quarter, from last quarter’s 1.6, but that is still in negative territory, the survey said.
Using a scale from 1 to 9, the IFO defines a score of 1 to 3.5 as “bad,” 3.5 to 6 as “satisfactory” and 6 to 9 as “good.”
The nation’s score for capital spending was 2.2 points, up from 1.8 points last quarter.
However, the score for private consumption decreased 0.2 points from 2.4 points last quarter to 2.2 points this quarter.
The outlook for the nation’s economy in the next two quarters is much better, as economists expect most key economic indicators — general economic situation, stock prices, private consumption, exports, capital spending and short and long term interest rates — to rise.
The New Taiwan dollar would remain stable against its US counterpart and inflation would also hold steady, the survey said.
The Munich-based think tank said in the report that prospects for the global economy seem to be turning positive, as its world economic climate indicator this quarter rose significantly after two consecutive declines in the previous two quarters.
The world economic climate indicator scored 94.1 points this quarter, up from 82.4 last quarter, the survey showed.
The current situation sub-index was 80.4 points this quarter, up from 76.6 points last quarter, it said.
The score of expectation sub-index was 107 points, up from 87.7 points last quarter, the survey said.
It added that the increase of the sub-index was the main reason for the world economic climate indicator climbing this quarter.
The largest rebound in the world climate indicator was seen in Asia, with both its current situation and expectation sub-indices rising significantly, the report said.
Asia’s world climate indicator scored 97.4 points this quarter, up from 81.6 points last quarter and higher than the long-term average of 90 points, the survey said.
The survey received responses from 1,169 analysts in 124 countries, 13 of them in Taiwan.