The central bank may implement a limited rate cut next year, as the economy looks set to stabilize with inflation tamed, the latest report by Credit Suisse Group AG said yesterday.
“We maintain our expectation for the central bank to make one rate cut in 2013,” Credit Suisse research analyst Christiaan Tuntono said in the report.
The brokerage said it does not think the bank is in a rush to loosen monetary policy further at this point, with growth seeing cyclical stabilization.
However, the problem facing Taiwanese authorities now is how long growth will remain stagnant, instead of how sharply growth will decrease, Tuntono said.
Meanwhile, the brokerage does not think inflation will be an issue for Taiwan next year and maintained its expectation of a moderate 2 percent growth in headline inflation next year.
Credit Suisse sees pressure on the government and the central bank to provide further policy support until the global economy shows more visible improvement.
The brokerage maintained its forecast for Taiwan’s GDP growth next year at 3.4 percent, higher than the 3.15 percent estimated by the government. It believes growth momentum will improve next year from this year, based on its expectation of stabilization in the pace of sequential growth next year.
Credit Suisse set its growth forecast for 2014 at 3.4 percent, the report’s data showed.
For this year, the brokerage expected growth in the fourth quarter to improve, with momentum persisting through the first quarter of next year.
Better industrial production — driven by a pickup in the electronic and information and communications technology (ICT) sectors — should drive the uptick, the report said.
On inflation, Credit Suisse said it expects annual growth of headline inflation this month to moderate further, on a higher statistical base in December last year and muted price pressure.
With growth momentum stabilizing, inflation is still likely to stay below trend for next year, restraining the rise in demand-pull price pressure, it added.
Private think tank Yuanta-Polaris Research Institute (元大寶華研究院) also said yesterday that inflation would not pose a threat to the economy this year.
The institute said annual growth in headline inflation this month may continue to fall for the fourth month in a row to less than 1 percent, slowing from the 1.59 percent recorded last month.
The moderate growth in inflation this month may help the consumer price index stay under 2 percent this year, Yuanta-Polaris said in a research note.
Stephen Garrett, a 27-year-old graduate student, always thought he would study in China, but first the country’s restrictive COVID-19 policies made it nearly impossible and now he has other concerns. The cost is one deterrent, but Garrett is more worried about restrictions on academic freedom and the personal risk of being stranded in China. He is not alone. Only about 700 American students are studying at Chinese universities, down from a peak of nearly 25,000 a decade ago, while there are nearly 300,000 Chinese students at US schools. Some young Americans are discouraged from investing their time in China by what they see
MAJOR DROP: CEO Tim Cook, who is visiting Hanoi, pledged the firm was committed to Vietnam after its smartphone shipments declined 9.6% annually in the first quarter Apple Inc yesterday said it would increase spending on suppliers in Vietnam, a key production hub, as CEO Tim Cook arrived in the country for a two-day visit. The iPhone maker announced the news in a statement on its Web site, but gave no details of how much it would spend or where the money would go. Cook is expected to meet programmers, content creators and students during his visit, online newspaper VnExpress reported. The visit comes as US President Joe Biden’s administration seeks to ramp up Vietnam’s role in the global tech supply chain to reduce the US’ dependence on China. Images on
New apartments in Taiwan’s major cities are getting smaller, while old apartments are increasingly occupied by older people, many of whom live alone, government data showed. The phenomenon has to do with sharpening unaffordable property prices and an aging population, property brokers said. Apartments with one bedroom that are two years old or older have gained a noticeable presence in the nation’s six special municipalities as well as Hsinchu county and city in the past five years, Evertrust Rehouse Co (永慶房產集團) found, citing data from the government’s real-price transaction platform. In Taipei, apartments with one bedroom accounted for 19 percent of deals last
US CONSCULTANT: The US Department of Commerce’s Ursula Burns is a rarely seen US government consultant to be put forward to sit on the board, nominated as an independent director Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電), the world’s largest contract chipmaker, yesterday nominated 10 candidates for its new board of directors, including Ursula Burns from the US Department of Commerce. It is rare that TSMC has nominated a US government consultant to sit on its board. Burns was nominated as one of seven independent directors. She is vice chair of the department’s Advisory Council on Supply Chain Competitiveness. Burns is to stand for election at TSMC’s annual shareholders’ meeting on June 4 along with the rest of the candidates. TSMC chairman Mark Liu (劉德音) was not on the list after in December last