The consumer confidence index this month fell for a ninth consecutive month to its lowest level in 13 months, as global trade uncertainties and tariff risks cloud Taiwan’s economic outlook, a survey released yesterday by National Central University found.
The biggest decline came from the timing for stock investments, which plunged 11.82 points to 26.82, underscoring bleak investor confidence, it said.
“Although the TAIEX reclaimed the 21,000-point mark after the US and China agreed to bury the hatchet for 90 days, investors remain worried that the situation would turn sour later,” said Dachrahn Wu (吳大任), director of the university’s Research Center for Taiwan Economic Development, which conducted the survey.
Photo: CNA
US threats to impose tariffs on semiconductors remain the main concern, as Taiwan is home to the world’s largest supplier of advanced chips used in artificial intelligence (AI), smartphones, high-performance computing and other technologies.
Exports fared well in the first half of this year, due partly to front-loading demand, but could turn south if trade negotiations prove disappointing, Wu said.
The US on April 2 slapped a 32 percent tariff on Taiwanese goods before announcing a 90-day pause on April 9 for trade negotiations.
A 20 percent tariff could be seen as relatively favorable, but even that figure represents a steep rise from the current 10 percent levy, Wu said.
Taiwan’s economic health would come under pressure in the second half when US tariffs go into practice and play havoc with global trade, he said.
That explained why the index’s six subindices all shed points in the poll of 3,099 adults, he said.
Meanwhile, the government’s business climate monitor last month was “yellow-red,” following a loss of three points to a six-month low, indicating Taiwan’s economy shows resilience, but challenges remain, the National Development Council said.
Taiwan’s strong exports were due to stockpiling by global firms ahead of US tariffs and real demand by US technology giants to grow their AI capabilities, council Economic Department Director Chiu Chiu-ying (邱秋瑩) said.
It is too early to predict the impact of the tariffs, as US President Donald Trump has been inconsistent on the matter, Chiu said.
The index of leading indicators, which seeks to capture the economic situation in the next six months, shrank 0.81 percent to 100.37, falling for three consecutive months, as business confidence, local share prices and export orders displayed retreats, the council said.
The index of coincident indicators, which reflects the current economic state, augmented 1.59 percent to 107.97, helped by positive imports of electrical and machinery equipment, exports, industrial output and overtime hours, it said.
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