Mon, Aug 13, 2012 - Page 13 News List

Barclays cuts its notebook export growth forecast

By Amy Su  /  Staff reporter

Barclays Capital PLC has cut its sequential growth forecast for notebook computer shipments in the third quarter to 7 percent, from a previous estimate of 10 percent, after Taiwan’s major notebook makers reported weaker-than-expected shipments for last month.

The foreign brokerage said it expected further cuts in orders because the slowing global economy and weak end-market demand have put a damper on the back-to-school shopping season for the notebook market this year.

Taiwan’s major notebook makers, such as Quanta Computer Inc (廣達), Compal Electronics Inc (仁寶), Wistron Corp (緯創), Pegatron Corp (和碩), Asustek Computer Inc (華碩) and Acer Inc (宏碁) released monthly sales data last week that showed shipments slowing ahead of the launch of Windows 8-equipped devices in the fourth quarter.

With data suggesting global notebook shipments were down 16 percent last month from June, Barclays said the figure was bigger than its estimate of a 14 percent monthly decrease.

“Channel inventory remained on the high side,” Barclays Capital hardware and components research head Kirk Yang (楊應超) said in a research report issued over the weekend.

In addition, Yang attributed the declining shipments to global economic uncertainties that have dragged down notebook sales and consumers’ waiting for the launch of Windows 8, which is scheduled to hit the market on Oct. 26.

Compared with notebook shipments, shipments for desktops and computer motherboards, which reported 1 percent growth for last month from June, were better than Barclays’ forecast of a 1 percent monthly decline.

Yang said he believed the better figures were the result of companies’ aggressive promotion activities and a modest recovery in Chinese demand.

Looking at this quarter, the brokerage said it maintained its previous shipments forecast for the sector — an increase of 6 percent from the second quarter — although the forecast would still be below normal seasonal figures of a 9 percent increase, according to the report.

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