The nation’s leading indicators rebounded for the sixth straight month last month, evidence that the economy is bottoming out, the Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD) said yesterday.
However, recent rising crude oil prices will be a major source of uncertainty for both the global and Taiwanese economy, it said.
The leading indicator index, which is used to gauge the economic outlook for the near future, increased 0.9 percent from a month earlier to 130.1 points, the council said in its monthly report.
The index’s annualized six-month rate of change, which provides a more accurate forecast of the business cycle in the near term, climbed 1.3 percentage points to 5.5 percent last month from a month ago, marking six months of consecutive improvements, the report said.
“The upturn of leading indicators, which offers the outlook for the upcoming four to six months, showed the economy might bottom out in the first quarter,” Hung Jui-bin (洪瑞彬), director-general of the council’s economic research department, told a press conference.
The pace of decline in some domestic business indicators in finance and consumption moderated last month amid the eurozone’s improving debt problem and moderate economic recovery in the US, Hung said.
However, some indicators in trade and production — such as growth of exports and imports — remained weak, he added.
Meanwhile, recent rising crude oil prices and slowing growth in China this year might pose downside risks for the global economy this year, Hung said, adding that the government would carefully watch these uncertainties.
Overall, Hung said he expected the annualized growth of Taiwan’s economy to improve quarter-by-quarter this year, in line with current market consensus.
The coincident index slid 0.7 percent to 125.9 points last month from a month earlier, with its trend-adjusted index dropping 1.3 percent to 93.6, the council said.
The overall monitoring indicators flashed “blue” for the fourth straight month last month, with the total score of the indicators rising two points to 15 last month, the report’s data showed.
In related news, the consumer confidence index (CCI) rose for the third straight month this month, mainly on back of improving confidence on the local stock market, a National Central University survey showed yesterday.
The index inched up 1.53 points to 81.26 this month, according to the survey.
The CCI benchmark gauges public expectations about the stock market, household finances, durable goods, job opportunities, consumer prices and the economic outlook for the next six months.
This month’s survey — which polled 2,422 people over the age of 20 from March 19 to last Wednesday last week — showed increasing uncertainty over consumer prices, but improved sentiment about other sectors, the university’s Research Center for Taiwan Economic Development said.
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