The Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER, 中華經濟研究院) yesterday revised downward its forecast for GDP growth this year to 4.29 percent from the 4.55 percent it forecast in December, citing the impact from Japan’s massive earthquake and tsunami.
“The nation’s economic growth this year will be negatively affected by Japan’s earthquake, especially in the second quarter,” Wang Lee-rong (王儷容), director of the institute’s center for economic forecasting, told a media briefing.
The Taipei-based think tank expected GDP growth to rise 3.94 percent in the second quarter and 4.49 percent in the second half of the year because of a lower base and strong exports, Wang said.
The institute’s research model was based on the IHS Global Insight’s latest forecast, which revised Japan’s GDP growth downward to zero this year from 1.1 percent growth, CIER researcher Peng Su-ling (彭素玲) said.
As a result of this change, the institute cut its GDP forecast for Taiwan by 0.31 percentage points, Peng said.
Taiwan’s GDP growth could drop even lower if the Japanese economy falls further in the wake of the radioactive disaster and ensuing power shortage, Wang said.
“At the most, Taiwan’s GDP growth could decrease by 0.64 percentage points for this year, on the assumption that Japan’s full-year GDP contracts by 1.5 percent,” Wang said.
Although researchers generally thought the Japanese quake would only have a limited impact on the global economy, Su Hsien-yang (蘇顯揚), director of the institute’s Japan center, said the Taiwanese economy would be more affected because of the close connection to Japan’s supply chain.
Taiwan should grab the opportunity to learn more high-level skills from Japan, as it plans to deepen its cooperation with other countries after the quake, Su said.
As to Standard & Poor’s negative outlook on US government debt, Wang said this could also have a negative impact on Taiwan’s GDP growth, but it was too early to provide estimates.
The institute expected Taiwan’s full-year inflation to grow at a steady 1.78 percent, while the wholesale price index could increase 3.35 percent this year.
Nvidia Corp chief executive officer Jensen Huang (黃仁勳) on Monday introduced the company’s latest supercomputer platform, featuring six new chips made by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電), saying that it is now “in full production.” “If Vera Rubin is going to be in time for this year, it must be in production by now, and so, today I can tell you that Vera Rubin is in full production,” Huang said during his keynote speech at CES in Las Vegas. The rollout of six concurrent chips for Vera Rubin — the company’s next-generation artificial intelligence (AI) computing platform — marks a strategic
Enhanced tax credits that have helped reduce the cost of health insurance for the vast majority of US Affordable Care Act enrollees expired on Jan.1, cementing higher health costs for millions of Americans at the start of the new year. Democrats forced a 43-day US government shutdown over the issue. Moderate Republicans called for a solution to save their political aspirations this year. US President Donald Trump floated a way out, only to back off after conservative backlash. In the end, no one’s efforts were enough to save the subsidies before their expiration date. A US House of Representatives vote
Shares in Taiwan closed at a new high yesterday, the first trading day of the new year, as contract chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電) continued to break records amid an artificial intelligence (AI) boom, dealers said. The TAIEX closed up 386.21 points, or 1.33 percent, at 29,349.81, with turnover totaling NT$648.844 billion (US$20.65 billion). “Judging from a stronger Taiwan dollar against the US dollar, I think foreign institutional investors returned from the holidays and brought funds into the local market,” Concord Securities Co (康和證券) analyst Kerry Huang (黃志祺) said. “Foreign investors just rebuilt their positions with TSMC as their top target,
REVENUE PERFORMANCE: Cloud and network products, and electronic components saw strong increases, while smart consumer electronics and computing products fell Hon Hai Precision Industry Co (鴻海精密) yesterday posted 26.51 percent quarterly growth in revenue for last quarter to NT$2.6 trillion (US$82.44 billion), the strongest on record for the period and above expectations, but the company forecast a slight revenue dip this quarter due to seasonal factors. On an annual basis, revenue last quarter grew 22.07 percent, the company said. Analysts on average estimated about NT$2.4 trillion increase. Hon Hai, which assembles servers for Nvidia Corp and iPhones for Apple Inc, is expanding its capacity in the US, adding artificial intelligence (AI) server production in Wisconsin and Texas, where it operates established campuses. This
RSS