Taiwan’s leading economic index, a pointer to the nation’s economic outlook six months ahead, shed 0.2 percent to record 117.6 points last month, indicating the economy is on track for a slight recovery, though the pace could slow down, the Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD) said yesterday.
All but one of the seven components making up the index registered negative cyclical movements last month from June, but remained in healthy zones, the council’s report showed.
“Although the global economy has showed signs of slowdown, the nation may continue to benefit from demand in emerging economies,” Hung Jui-bin (洪瑞彬), director-general of CEPD’s economic research department, told a media briefing.
Meanwhile, the government is helping to promote foreign and private investment, which will give a boost to consumer spending, Hung said.
The export orders, money supply, stock prices, producer inventories and building permit sub-indexes all headed down from their levels of a month earlier, the report said.
The semiconductor book-to-bill ratio, an indicator of the chipmaking industry’s performance, stood at 1.23 last month, above the healthy expansion level of 1.0, despite the downward movement, the report said.
Only the leading gauge of average monthly overtime in the industrial and services sectors registered an upward trend, the report said, as companies remained cautious about hiring new workers to meet demand.
The coincident index, which reflects the current economic situation, rose for a 13th consecutive month to reach 124 points, the report said.
Wu Ming-huei (吳明蕙), chief of the CEPD’s research division, said the readings lent support to cautious optimism about the nation’s economic outlook for the second half.
“The data helps to explain why major research institutes at home and abroad have revised up their GDP forecast for Taiwan this year,” Wu said.
On Aug. 19, the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics adjusted its GDP growth forecast to 8.24 percent for this year, up from 6.14 percent in May.
The forecast is higher than Polaris Research Institute’s (寶華綜合經濟研究院) estimate of 6.82 percent and Academia Sinica’s prediction of 6.89 percent for this year.
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