Global cellphones shipments are expected to grow by about 12 percent to nearly 1.59 billion units this year because of increased demand in emerging markets, the Taiwan-based Topology Research Institute (TRI, 拓墣產業研究所) forecast yesterday.
According to the private think tank, handset shipment growth will be driven largely by key emerging markets such as India and China.
The number of mobile phone users in India is expected to increase from 400 million at present to more than 700 million in 2012 — boosted by telecoms tax changes and liberalization measures, the TRI said. China’s effort to promote 3G services is also expected to substantially increase its mobile phone shipments.
Kelly Hsieh (謝雨珊), an analyst at the TRI, said that this year would be the year of the smartphone, adding that sharp growth in sales is expected to begin from the second quarter.
The global smartphone penetration rate, which was 13 percent to 15 percent last year, is expected to reach 18 percent to 20 percent this year, and 25 percent to 28 percent next year, Hsieh said.
Although global cellphone shipments have continued to increase, shipments and the market percentage of mobile phones from Taiwanese manufacturers have been decreasing over the past few years, the TRI said.
The shipment of Taiwanese mobile phones is expected to drop to 56 million units this year, compared with 59.7 million units last year and 89 million in 2008, it said.
The percentage of Taiwanese mobile phones among global shipments is expected to decrease to 3.5 percent this year, compared with 4.2 percent last year and 6.6 percent in 2008, it said.
Hsieh said, however, that shrinking shipments of Taiwanese mobile phones may not be necessarily negative, because most Taiwanese manufacturers were trying to reposition themselves and move toward producing more high-end mobile phones.
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