The risk posed by asset bubbles in Asia is overstated because surging prices in markets don’t threaten regional economies, said Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia Ltd.
“The difference between the asset bubbles in this region and asset bubbles also around the world is that they have not affected the real side of the Asian economy,” Roach said in an interview in Hong Kong yesterday.
Concerns about inflation in Asia are “overblown” as excess capacity in the global economy is likely to keep a “lid” on prices for the next few years, said Roach, author of The Next Asia. “Beyond that, it’s a big challenge.”
Standard & Poor’s warned yesterday that Asian policy makers may fuel asset bubbles by leaving interest rates “too low for too long” as the region leads a global recovery from the worst slowdown since World War II. Stock and property markets are looking “frothy” in Asia, said David Wyss, an economist at S&P.
The US had “monster bubbles in property credit that ended up stalling home-building activities and personal consumption” and when they burst the “economy went into the tank,” Roach said. In contrast, in Asia “you have bubbles that come and go, but they don’t impact on the real economy.”
Roach also said that Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s (溫家寶) past warnings that his nation’s growth path is “unbalanced and unsustainable” have become a “serious concern now.”
“Two of the main engines of the Chinese economy, exports and investments, really have reached their point of maximum dynamism,” Roach said. “The Chinese need to change the model and move much more into consumer-led” growth, he said.
China’s central bank last month ordered banks to set aside more deposits as reserves for the second time in a month to cool the economic expansion after loan growth accelerated and property prices surged 9.5 percent in January, the most in 21 months. The China Banking Regulatory Commission told banks the same month to “strictly” follow property lending policies.
China’s consumer prices increased 1.5 percent in January from a year earlier, mainly due to gains in food costs resulting from the cold winter weather, the National Bureau of Statistics said. The gauge rose 0.6 percent from December.
In the fourth quarter of last year, the Chinese economy grew 10.7 percent from a year earlier, the fastest pace since 2007.
The US dollar was trading at NT$29.7 at 10am today on the Taipei Foreign Exchange, as the New Taiwan dollar gained NT$1.364 from the previous close last week. The NT dollar continued to rise today, after surging 3.07 percent on Friday. After opening at NT$30.91, the NT dollar gained more than NT$1 in just 15 minutes, briefly passing the NT$30 mark. Before the US Department of the Treasury's semi-annual currency report came out, expectations that the NT dollar would keep rising were already building. The NT dollar on Friday closed at NT$31.064, up by NT$0.953 — a 3.07 percent single-day gain. Today,
‘SHORT TERM’: The local currency would likely remain strong in the near term, driven by anticipated US trade pressure, capital inflows and expectations of a US Fed rate cut The US dollar is expected to fall below NT$30 in the near term, as traders anticipate increased pressure from Washington for Taiwan to allow the New Taiwan dollar to appreciate, Cathay United Bank (國泰世華銀行) chief economist Lin Chi-chao (林啟超) said. Following a sharp drop in the greenback against the NT dollar on Friday, Lin told the Central News Agency that the local currency is likely to remain strong in the short term, driven in part by market psychology surrounding anticipated US policy pressure. On Friday, the US dollar fell NT$0.953, or 3.07 percent, closing at NT$31.064 — its lowest level since Jan.
Hong Kong authorities ramped up sales of the local dollar as the greenback’s slide threatened the foreign-exchange peg. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) sold a record HK$60.5 billion (US$7.8 billion) of the city’s currency, according to an alert sent on its Bloomberg page yesterday in Asia, after it tested the upper end of its trading band. That added to the HK$56.1 billion of sales versus the greenback since Friday. The rapid intervention signals efforts from the city’s authorities to limit the local currency’s moves within its HK$7.75 to HK$7.85 per US dollar trading band. Heavy sales of the local dollar by
The Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC) yesterday met with some of the nation’s largest insurance companies as a skyrocketing New Taiwan dollar piles pressure on their hundreds of billions of dollars in US bond investments. The commission has asked some life insurance firms, among the biggest Asian holders of US debt, to discuss how the rapidly strengthening NT dollar has impacted their operations, people familiar with the matter said. The meeting took place as the NT dollar jumped as much as 5 percent yesterday, its biggest intraday gain in more than three decades. The local currency surged as exporters rushed to
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