The US economy’s faster-than-expected growth at the end of last year, fueled by companies boosting output to keep stockpiles up, is likely to weaken as consumers keep a lid on spending.
The 5.7 percent annual growth rate in the fourth quarter was the fastest pace since 2003. It marked two straight quarters of growth after four quarters of decline. Growth exceeded expectations mainly because business spending on equipment and software jumped much more than forecast.
Still, economists expect growth to slow this year as companies finish restocking inventories and as government stimulus efforts fade. Many estimate the country’s GDP will grow between 2.5 percent and 3 percent in the current quarter and about 2.5 percent or less for the full year.
That won’t be fast enough to significantly reduce the unemployment rate, now 10 percent. Most analysts expect the rate to keep rising for several months and remain close to 10 percent through the end of the year.
High unemployment and stagnant wage growth will likely keep consumers cautious about spending. Wages and benefits paid to US workers posted a scant gain in the fourth quarter. And for all of last year, workers’ compensation rose by the smallest amount on records going back more than a quarter-century.
The economic recovery could falter if consumers, who account for 70 percent of economic activity, lack the income to ramp up spending.
“That’s why there’s so much hand-wringing right now,” said Brian Bethune, chief US financial economist for IHS Global Insight. “Can the economy really sustain this? That’s the big question mark sitting out there.”
With hiring still weak, US President Barack Obama has stepped up his focus on job creation. On Friday, he urged US Congress to embrace his call for tax incentives to create jobs.
Obama wants to give companies a US$5,000 tax credit for each net new worker they hire this year. Also, businesses that increase wages or hours for existing workers this year would be reimbursed for the extra Social Security payroll taxes they would pay.
“It’s time to put America back to work,” the president told workers at the Chesapeake Machine Company in Baltimore. But he acknowledged that “while these proposals will create jobs all across America, we’ve got a long way to go to make up for the millions of jobs that we lost in this recession.”
Friday’s report is the first of the government’s three estimates of gross domestic product and is likely to be revised. The government initially estimated third quarter growth was 3.5 percent, which was later revised down to 2.2 percent. The next estimate will be released on Feb. 26.
The report provided an upbeat end to an otherwise dismal year: The country’s economy declined 2.4 percent last year, the largest drop since 1946. This was the first annual decline since 1991.
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